Evaluation of the European Green Deal

How effective is EU cohesion policy in driving green transition in Europe? On behalf of the European Commission (DG REGIO), we evaluated, together with partners, how cohesion policy supports the implementation of the European Green Deal.

EU cohesion policy aims to reduce economic, social and territorial disparities between EU regions. It accounts for a significant portion of the EU budget and is considered a key instrument for achieving climate neutrality in the EU by 2050 – the main objective of the European Green Deal.

Our mission

This analysis is one of 14 studies that examined EU cohesion policy in the period from 2014 to 2020.

The evaluation focused on the promotion of various sustainability issues such as energy efficiency, renewable energies, climate adaptation, biodiversity, resource management and sustainable mobility. The project was managed externally by COWI, with CSIL and Milieu as additional partners.

We examined 34 areas of intervention and 12 policy instruments in order to analyse the effectiveness and success of the measures employed.

These policy instruments were designed to address various political challenges and achieve the desired results efficiently.

Key findings of the evaluation

• The programme planning was closely aligned with the objectives of the Europe 2020 strategy. It focused on a low-carbon economy, climate change and the efficient use of the environment and resources.
• Although the overall results fell short of expectations, noticeable progress was made in all key areas – decarbonisation, climate adaptation, clean transport and resource efficiency.
• In order to achieve the ambitious goals of the EGD, significantly more investment is needed in transformative, systemic solutions, such as the circular economy.

Effectiveness of the measures

• Decarbonisation: Investments in decarbonisation reduced annual CO₂ emissions by an estimated 9.6 million tonnes. Programmes that specifically promoted renewable energies and improved energy efficiency in industry were particularly successful.
• Energy efficiency: The targets for energy-efficient renovation of residential buildings were achieved by 97 per cent, while those for renovation of public buildings were achieved by only 57 per cent.
• Climate adaptation: Investments in climate adaptation protected an additional 29 million people from flooding and 24 million from fires.
• Nature and biodiversity: Investments in nature and biodiversity achieved a particularly good result, with 126.9 per cent of the target being met.
• Overall, the measures clearly contributed to the sustainability goals of the European Green Deal. However, there were some inhibiting factors, such as unambitious targets, a lack of administrative capacity, a shortage of skilled workers and complicated project processes, which placed a particular burden on local authorities.
• Furthermore, traditional ‘grey’ infrastructure solutions dominated investments. Nature-based and circular approaches remained rare.

Recommendations

The strategic recommendations are:

• Prioritisation of investments with high impact and transformative potential,
• Expansion of administrative and technical capacities,
• Increased support for innovation and climate adaptation measures,
• strengthening green public procurement.

Our approach

As part of the evaluation, Prognos was responsible for

• various statistical analyses,
• the creation of a total of 12 theories of change relating to various aspects of the evaluation,
• a literature and document review,
• several case studies (specifically: renewable energies; energy-efficient buildings; energy-efficient industry; green economy),
• as well as detailed analyses of operational programmes in five German federal states.

The project started in September 2022 and ran until May 2025.

In addition to evaluating aspects related to the European Green Deal, Prognos was involved in two other parallel studies on EU cohesion policy 2014-2020: one on the evaluation of SME support (led by CSIL) and the other on the evaluation of support for research, technological development and innovation, which is being led by Prognos itself.

Links and downloads

To the study

More information about the project

Project team: Anja Breuer, Daniel Gehrt, Lorenzo Pelizzari, Isabel Schöfl, Richard Simpson

Latest update: 26 November 2025