no climate neutrality
without raw materials
Climate Neutrality Foundation
Oeko-Institut, Wuppertal Institute
Crises such as the Covid-19 pandemic or Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine place global supply chains under threat. But if Germany is to achieve its 2045 climate-neutrality goals, it will have to secure the supply of raw materials, components, and strategic goods.
Economic challenges, however, are not the only issue, there is also the question of national security, sovereignty, and the achievement of climate goals. Our study examines the key priorities, fields of action and policy measures required to secure the climate neutrality transformation through resilient supply chains. The project, conducted by Prognos in joint collaboration with the Oeko-Institut and the Wuppertal Institute, was commissioned by the Climate Neutrality Foundation.
Diversification and deglobalisation in the procurement of critical raw materials
Some key industries – including photovoltaics, wind power, and battery production for electric cars – play a strategic role in the path to climate neutrality. The supply of critical raw materials and components for such industries must therefore be secured.
But supply chains are only as resilient as their weakest link. The following measures should be taken to safeguard these supply chains:
Key strategies to increase supply chain resilience include but are not limited to:
Securing climate goals through resilient supply chains
The study shows where the current or foreseeable future dependencies on foreign countries in the supply of raw materials, components and strategic goods are, and how critical a role they play in the achievement of climate neutrality. To this end, we have identified the technologies, intermediates, and raw materials that are key to the climate neutrality transformation. In the next step, we analysed the central supply chains and their respective weak points. Based on this we developed a set of solutions and recommendations for initial policy decisions for each of the key technologies.
This study is based on the Climate Neutral Germany 2045 baseline study (Prognos, Oeko-Institut, Wuppertal Institute, 2021).
Links and downloads
To the study (PDF in German)
Summary (PDF in German)Project team: Elias Althoff, Tim Bichlmeier, Lucas Bierhaus, Nico Dietzsch, Hans Dambeck, Dr. Andreas Kemmler, Leonard Krampe, Sebastian Lübbers, Malek Sahnoun, Lennart Schulz, Minh Phuong Vu, Paul Wendring, Aurel Wünsch, Marco Wünsch, Inka Ziegenhagen
Latest update: 05.09.2023
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Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.