Supply chains:
no climate neutrality
without raw materials

Crises such as the Covid-19 pandemic or Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine place global supply chains under threat. But if Germany is to achieve its 2045 climate-neutrality goals, it will have to secure the supply of raw materials, components, and strategic goods.

Economic challenges, however, are not the only issue, there is also the question of national security, sovereignty, and the achievement of climate goals. Our study examines the key priorities, fields of action and policy measures required to secure the climate neutrality transformation through resilient supply chains. The project, conducted by Prognos in joint collaboration with the Oeko-Institut and the Wuppertal Institute, was commissioned by the Climate Neutrality Foundation.

Diversification and deglobalisation in the procurement of critical raw materials

Some key industries – including photovoltaics, wind power, and battery production for electric cars – play a strategic role in the path to climate neutrality. The supply of critical raw materials and components for such industries must therefore be secured.

But supply chains are only as resilient as their weakest link. The following measures should be taken to safeguard these supply chains:

• targeted investments in domestic transformation industries
• locating particularly critical parts of the supply chains in Germany or Europe
• international diversification of the procurement of critical raw materials, components, and strategic goods, i.e., establishing new trade relations
• timely investments in the development of raw material recycling
• reducing raw material intensities and developing alternative technological options

Key strategies to increase supply chain resilience include but are not limited to:

• comprehensive, institutionalised resilience monitoring
• enabling purchasing groups for strategic raw materials and goods as well as the bundling of supply contracts
• expanding transformation partnerships at eye level

Securing climate goals through resilient supply chains

The study shows where the current or foreseeable future dependencies on foreign countries in the supply of raw materials, components and strategic goods are, and how critical a role they play in the achievement of climate neutrality. To this end, we have identified the technologies, intermediates, and raw materials that are key to the climate neutrality transformation. In the next step, we analysed the central supply chains and their respective weak points. Based on this we developed a set of solutions and recommendations for initial policy decisions for each of the key technologies.

This study is based on the Climate Neutral Germany 2045 baseline study (Prognos, Oeko-Institut, Wuppertal Institute, 2021).

Links and downloads

To the study (PDF in German)

Summary (PDF in German)

Project team: Elias Althoff, Tim Bichlmeier, Lucas Bierhaus, Nico Dietzsch, Hans Dambeck, Dr. Andreas Kemmler, Leonard Krampe, Sebastian Lübbers, Malek Sahnoun, Lennart Schulz, Minh Phuong Vu, Paul Wendring, Aurel Wünsch, Marco Wünsch, Inka Ziegenhagen

Latest update: 05.09.2023