all projects

Report on all-day
education and childcare
services for primary school children

Client

Federal Ministry for Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth (BMFSFJ)

Year

ongoing

Partner

Institut für Theorie und Empirie des Sozialen (ITES)


Our mission

Through measures such as the 2020 funding programme designed to accelerate the expansion of the infrastructure of all-day childcare for primary school children as well as the Ganztagsförderungsgesetz (GaFöG, All-day Support Act), adopted in 2021, the federal and state governments are seeking to accelerate the development of a needs-based education and childcare programme for children of primary school age. The GaFöG envisages a gradual introduction of legal entitlement for children of primary school age starting from the 2026/2027 school year.

Prognos compiled the report for the Ministry for Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth (BMFSFJ), on the status of the expansion of all-day education and childcare programmes for primary school children (GaFöG report), which is anchored in the GaFöG and must be submitted annually to the Bundestag.

Our first report 

The first GaFöG report was published by the BMFSFJ in December 2023.

Core results:

  • For the 2021/2022 school year around 1.7 million children of primary school age attended an all-day school programme or a daycare centre that offers childcare for school-aged children (after-school care). This amounts to around 55 percent of all primary school-aged children.
  • The last years have seen significant expansion in the education and childcare services on offer for children of primary school age across all regions. The result is a wide range of services.
  • To be able to provide services that meet demand, taking into account demographic developments, the childcare requirements of parents and the legal entitlement that is gradually coming into effect, 393,000 new places will have to be created by the 2026/2027 school year. This is of course providing that parent demand does not significantly change in the future. Should parent demand increase, then an estimated 545,000 additional places would be required. The middle ground would amount to around 470,000 additional places.
  • In terms of the gradual introduction of legal entitlement, a large range of preparation measures can be seen across Germany’s states. The state funding earmarked for this purpose has until now largely contributed to the qualitative expansion of services.
  • All-day care experts estimate furthermore that personnel, financial resources and the spatial equipment of all-day services, further training for staff and parental involvement are critical.
  • Trans-regionally agreed “Guardrails” such as the recommendations of the Kultusministerkonferenz (KMK) held in October 2023, serve as orientation for regions and municipalities and help reduce variation in execution quality in all-day services.

Our approach

The expansion status of all-day education and childcare services for children of primary school age is examined on the basis of the KMK’s all-day school statistics and the official child and youth welfare statistics. Parent demand is represented with the help of the Childcare Study conducted by the German Youth Institute in the form of a nationwide parent survey. To calculate the number of all-day places that will be required in the future, the Statistic Offices’ 15th coordinated population forecast was also consulted.

The national and state measures in preparation for the implementation of legal entitlement are essentially represented in terms of the state-specific funding guidelines and administrative data on the Federal Government’s investment programmes as well as an online survey of the federal states.

In cooperation with ITES, qualitative questions about the further development of existing all-day services will be addressed. In addition, surveys will be conducted with school principals, parents, children, and case studies carried out in municipalities.

Links and downloads

GaFöG Report 2023 (BMFSFJ website in German)

GaFöG Report 2023 (short version, web magazine, in German)

More about our work in this field

Project team: Dr Dagmar Weßler-Poßberg, Gwendolyn Huschik, Sören Mohr, Dr Anna Marina Schmidt, Rahel Reemtsma

Latest update: 06.12.2023

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Dr Dagmar Weßler-Poßberg

Partner, Head of Social Policy

View profile

Gwendolyn Huschik

Project Manager

View profile

Mehr Studien & Projekte zu diesem Thema

More studies & projects on this topic

Evaluation of Thuringia’s Inclusion Act

ongoing
| Project

Removing barriers and preventing discrimination: Thuringia’s Equality and Inclusion Act enforces these very things. We examine how it is being implemented and its effectiveness.

Employers’ attractiveness according to parents and carers

2024
| Project

Employees want tailor-made reconciliation measures that ensure work-life balance and not to face professional disadvantage as a result of their care work. These were the findings of our study for the BMFSFJ.

Guest article in WirtschaftsWoche: "Move Europe - it's urgent!"

2024
| Expertise

In his guest article "Move Europe - it's urgent!" in WirtschaftsWoche, Christian Böllhoff calls for Europe to reposition itself geo-economically in order to strengthen its position between the economic giants USA and China.

Economic impact analysis for selected SDGs

2024
| Project

A foundation group commissioned us to use KPIs to visualise the impact of its activities within identified focus SDGs.

Harnessing Talent Platform: Technical support in progress

2024
| Project update

The Harnessing Talent Platform supports selected regions within the EU that are particularly affected by demographic change and the brain drain. The technical support that Prognos is providing in some regions has now been launched with kick-off meetings.

Evaluation of childcare services in NRW

ongoing
| Project

On behalf of the State of North Rhine-Westphalia’s Ministry for Children- Refugees and Integration, Prognos evaluated the changes resulting from the amended Children's Education Act (KiBiz).

KreativLand Baden-Württemberg

2024
| Project

Creatives in the countryside? As scientific partner in the model project KreativLand Baden-Württemberg, Prognos examined the status quo, the opportunities and the challenges facing creatives living and working outside of the urban centres and regions.

Evaluation of the Bildungsketten Initiative

ongoing
| Project

The Bildungsketten Initiative’s goal is to support coordinated action by the Federal and State governments at the most important interfaces of the educational process. Prognos evaluates the initiative on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research.

Trend Report 2024: Germany on its path to digital administration - an update

2024
| Project

Where does Germany stand on its path to digital administration? The Trendreport 2024 gives an update and recommendations for the digitalisation of the public administration system.

Career orientation for immigrants

2024
| Project

The transition into the job market often represents a greater challenge for immigrants. We evaluated a subsidised programme that supports them in meeting this challenge on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research.

About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

Learn more