German Federal Association for Heat Pumps
As of January 1, 2024, every heating system must comply at least 65% of renewable energies. During the amendment of the Buildings Energy Act (GEG), the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action developed a concept for the implementation of this 65% RES-rule, released for public discussion in the summer of 2022. As a contribution to this discussion, the German Federal Association for Heat Pumps commissioned Prognos AG to provide a numerical basis for the cost-effectiveness of heat pumps in rented apartment buildings in consideration of different parameters (price level, building type, etc.).
The project team examines the question of the social compatibility of such measures by examining the allocation of costs and their economic consequences for tenants and landlords. The uncertainties arising from the changed framework conditions for gas and electricity prices should also be made clear.
The first step is to analyse and determine end customer prices for electricity and natural gas, taking into account the volatility and uncertainties of current price developments.
Since the building stock in Germany is very diverse, several technical building variants are being investigated (two building types, with and without optimisation of the secondary heating system).
Three heat generators are compared for each of the defined type buildings:
The necessary investment costs and assumptions regarding maintenance and operating costs are based on studies, our own estimates, and data provided by the customer. Due to the dynamic development of costs in recent years, the investment costs are calculated on the basis of appropriate indices (e.g. construction price index) for the year under review (2023), to be determined in the course of the project.
Current nationwide subsidies for heat pumps are taken into account.
As a result of the change in energy prices and the continuing availability of subsidies, the cost-effectiveness of heat pumps in moderately renovated apartment buildings has improved significantly compared to the use of fossil fuel heaters compared to previous years. Switching to a heat pump is now more economical than simply replacing a gas boiler with a new one. This can also help to offset sharply rising energy costs for renters.
Result documentation (waermepumpe.de, PDF in German)
More information (waermepumpe.de, in German)
More about our work on this topic
Project team: Nils Thamling, Dominik Rau, Nora Langreder, Malek Sahnoun
Latest update: 11.10.2022
The Federal Ministry of Economics promotes digital technologies that drive forward the economy’s green transformation. Together with partners, we are responsible for the accompanying research.
Our study for the vbw compares electricity and gas prices for industry worldwide and provides a price development outlook up to the year 2030.
Crises continue to put global trade routes at risk. This study by Prognos and partners indicates the measures necessary to secure strategically important supply chains.
We investigate the climate-damaging emissions, water consumption and energy consumption of the German pharmaceutical industry on behalf of the Association of Research-Based Pharmaceu-tical Companies (Verband Forschender Arzneimittel-Hersteller e. V.).
In the medium and long term, average wholesale electricity prices are above the 2019/2020 level. Our updated scenarios for the vbw.
The liberalisation of the electricity markets in the EU was once supposed to reduce costs. Sven Kreidelmeyer writes in the Swiss magazine "Die Volkswirtschaft" about the effects of free competition and current developments in the European electricity sector, among other things.
How much LNG can it be? Prognos prepared two studies for the German government's Science Platform for Climate Protection (WPKS) to address this question.
For a paper by Environmental Action Germany, we provided case studies on the question of whether the switch to heat pumps in typical single- and multi-family homes is more economical than exchanging gas boilers.
A study for the Bertelsmann Stiftung shows which climate policy measures can best support the switch to low-emission production processes.
If savings continue to be as low as in January and February, the risk of a gas shortage will in-crease in the coming winter.
Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.