The construction industry shapes, forms and changes our environment. What is planned and built today will remain for decades to come. Through its core business, it creates the physical conditions for social coexistence and for large parts of economic activity in Bavaria. In the coming years, the construction industry is facing a transformation that will enable it to make a decisive contribution to the major challenges of our time. The trends, challenges and solutions in the construction industry are examined in the study "Constructing our Future. Planen. Bauen. Leben. Arbeiten.” (planning, building, living, working). It was jointly prepared by Prognos, the Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering and the Leonhard Obermeyer Center. The results and policy recommendations were presented on 27 July 2021 as part of the online congress of the Zukunftsrat der Bayerischen Wirtschaft (future council of the Bavarian economy). Future development of the construction sector There are various factors that will influence the construction sector over the next ten years, some of which are counteracting each other. Demographic change is causing a shortage of skilled workers in certain professions and dampening construction demand overall. The low-interest rate environment will continue to have a driving effect, as (residential) real estate will remain an attractive form of investment for the time being. The transformation towards climate neutrality and the measures to adapt to the consequences of climate change also make (construction) investment necessary and, thus, have a positive effect on construction activity. Climate protection and circular economy The construction sector is one of the largest consumers of resources and energy. The construction and operation of buildings and infrastructures together are responsible (directly and indirectly) for over 40 percent of Germany's greenhouse gas emissions. As a result, they offer a central lever for achieving climate protection goals. The reduction of greenhouse gas emissions requires significant changes, but it is technologically feasible. In the building sector, this concerns, for example, the use of technologies to reduce the demand for electricity, heating and cooling and to replace fossil fuels. In addition, the use of low-CO2 produced and renewable building materials will have to become increasingly important. Another starting point is the circular economy. Buildings and infrastructures must be designed in such a way that they can be used for as long as possible and retain their value. At the same time, the possibility of recovering raw materials at the end of their service life must be considered from the outset. The German stock of raw materials, which is bound up in buildings for the long term, offers enormous material potential which, after proper dismantling, can either be reused as recycled building materials or components or used in other sectors of the economy. The potential for the recovery of materials and specific components is reflected in construction and demolition waste, which accounts for about 55 percent of the waste generated in Germany. Living, working and mobility With the outbreak of the Corona pandemic, social transformation processes were accelerated, the long-term effects of which are still open. The increasingly fluid boundary between working and living through mobile working or home office solutions is currently changing the previous understanding of (commuter) mobility. The new work and mobility routines are leading to a reassessment of individual housing needs and lifestyles with implications for the demands on buildings and neighbourhoods as well as the development of cities and regions. For example, neighbourhood coworking spaces or outsourced satellite offices could be integrated into residential quarters in the future. This also has implications for office space requirements and the design of existing office spaces and structures. Directly to the study (Website Zukunftsrat, in German) Press release vbw (in German) Further information (Website Zukunftsrat, in German) Authors: Dr Heiko Burret, Dr Almut Kirchner, Dr Bärbel Birnstengel, Lukas Eiserbeck, Maike Fließbach-Schendzielorz, Jannis Lambert, Tobias Koch, Markus Mahle, Marion Neumann, Konstantinos Theodorou Our work on this topic Take a look at our latest projects and activities. Hybrid seminar on cohesion policy support for RTDI 23. April 2024 | Event Prognos and its partners are organising a hybrid seminar on the evaluation of cohesion policy support for research, technological development and innovation (RTDI). Read more Five challenges: How Europe remains competitive in the future 2024 | Expertise What needs to happen for Europe to survive in global competition? We analysed this at the “12 Minutes Europe – Meeting Global Challenges” event organised by the Austrian Federal Economic Chamber. Read more Harnessing Talent Platform: Technical support in progress 2024 | Project update The Harnessing Talent Platform supports selected regions within the EU that are particularly affected by demographic change and the brain drain. The technical support that Prognos is providing in some regions has now been launched with kick-off meetings. Read more European Cluster Conference 2024 7. - 8. May 2024 | Event The European Cluster Conference 2024 brings the key players in the European cluster economy together in one place. The Prognos team around Head of EU-Services Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer is providing input both as part of our work for the European Cluster Collaboration Platform and for the NRW.innovativ competence centre. Read more KreativLand Baden-Württemberg 2024 | Project Creatives in the countryside? As scientific partner in the model project KreativLand Baden-Württemberg, Prognos examined the status quo, the opportunities and the challenges facing creatives living and working outside of the urban centres and regions. Read more Evaluation of the Bildungsketten Initiative ongoing | Project The Bildungsketten Initiative’s goal is to support coordinated action by the Federal and State governments at the most important interfaces of the educational process. Prognos evaluates the initiative on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research. Read more Ludwig-Erhard-Gipfel 17. - 19. April 2024 | Event Christian Böllhoff, CEO of Prognos, discusses the topic of (de)globalization at the Ludwig Erhard Summit with host Dr Wolfram Weimer. Read more Support for the Just Transition Platform 2024 | Project Through the Just Transition Platform (JTP), the EU supports the member states and regions in achieving their climate targets in a fair manner. Prognos provided the JTP with in-depth analyses and knowledge management. Read more Career orientation for immigrants 2024 | Project The transition into the job market often represents a greater challenge for immigrants. We evaluated a subsidised programme that supports them in meeting this challenge on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research. Read more The invisible value of care work 2024 | Expertise 72 billion hours: That is how many unpaid care work hours are performed in Germany, annually, by women. In a new paper, we show the value of unpaid care work and how unevenly it is dis-tributed between men and women. Read more Innovation Index Germany 2023 2024 | Project Once again, Prognos has compiled the Innovation Index Germany on behalf of the Vodafone Institute for Society and Communications. The index quantifies the impact the expansion of Germany’s digital infrastructure has had on its innovation strength. Read more Status Report on the German Recycling Economy 2024 2024 | Project The 2024 Status Report gives a comprehensive picture of the whole Recycling Economy sector and its future challenges. Read more Indicators of equal living conditions ongoing | Project The establishment of equal living conditions in Germany is one of the goals being prioritised by the Federal Government. But how can the equivalence of living conditions be measured? Prognos develops a set of indicators. Read more Value added of German pharmaceutical exports 2023 | Project Compared to other export sectors, German pharmaceutical exports show above-average levels of innovation and value-added intensity. However, the industry is falling behind in the global re-search competition. This is shown by a new study commissioned by Roche. Read more Climate path implementation in Baden-Württemberg 2024 | Project In Baden-Württemberg, emissions are to be reduced by a further 23% by 2030. As part of a multi-stage concept, Prognos examines the challenges and opportunities for action in the transfor-mation context. Read more New procurement markets for the Bavarian economy 2023 | Project New procurement markets can help increase the resilience and efficiency of the German and Bavarian supply chains. The study quantifies the current procurement markets and those still yet to be further exploited. Read more The Circular Week 2023 24. - 25. October 2023 | Event From October 24th to 25th, Hanne Hagedorn will be in Warsaw for the Green Economy Network.NRW as part of the Circular Economy Week 2023. Read more Supply chains: no climate neutrality without raw materials 2023 | Project Crises continue to put global trade routes at risk. This study by Prognos and partners indicates the measures necessary to secure strategically important supply chains. Read more The future of the automotive industry in Saarland ongoing | Project The automotive industry continues to undergo fundamental change worldwide. How does this transformation affect the Saarland economy? Read more Internationalisation of the Baden-Württemberg environmental technology sector 2023 | Project What are the biggest sales opportunities? How can the location gain visibility worldwide? Further development of the strategic foundations. Read more Implementation of the European Green Deal through EU cohesion policy ongoing | Project The EU’s C4T platform supports structurally weak regions in their transition to a carbon-free and resilient Europe. In this context, Prognos is responsible for establishing a scientific forum. Read more Increased gas prices and gas price brakes 2023 | Project A study for the vbw on the impact of the gas price brake for Bavarian companies. Read more Ecological footprint of the pharmaceutical industry in Germany ongoing | Project On behalf of the Association of Research-based Pharmaceutical Companies (vfa) we determined the global ecological footprint of Germany’s pharmaceutical industry. Read more Effects of deglobalisation on Germany and Europe 2023 | Project Increasing geopolitical tensions are endangering the world trading system. On behalf of the vbw, Prognos investigated possible consequences for the economy in Germany and the EU. Read more Securing skilled workers with the help of the Harnessing Talent Platform ongoing | Project DG Regio's new platform aims to help EU regions develop strategies to attract talent. Prognos is, among other things, leading the knowledge generation. Read more Article in "Die Volkswirtschaft": EU reaction to electricity prices 2023 | Expertise The liberalisation of the electricity markets in the EU was once supposed to reduce costs. Sven Kreidelmeyer writes in the Swiss magazine "Die Volkswirtschaft" about the effects of free competition and current developments in the European electricity sector, among other things. Read more Where does Germany's economy really stand? 2023 | Company news Why it’s time for Germany to take an honest look at itself. A guest commentary in the WirtschaftsWoche by Dr Michael Böhmer. Read more EU monitoring framework: Economic aspects of the circular economy 2023 | Project Prognos was commissioned to develop a methodological framework for the collection of economic data on the circular economy, climate change and bioeconomy and its regular automated processing. Read more Pension at 63 – Quo vadis? 2023 | Project Retiring at 63 is very popular. In 2021 alone, more than 270,000 people took the option of early retirement. These were the findings of our study for the INSM. Read more Evaluation of the federal grants to GTAI 2022 | Project The aim of Germany Trade and Invest (GTAI) is to promote German foreign trade. Prognos investigated whether they are using their budget effectively. Read more Purpose Economy model 2023 | Project Could purpose become the model for business and society? We investigated this as part of our work for the Future Office and compared it with other scenarios. Read more Decarbonisation of raw materials industries in Germany 2022 | Project A study for the Bertelsmann Stiftung shows which climate policy measures can best support the switch to low-emission production processes. Read more In danger: Objectives of the “Ampel-Koalition” 2023 | Project A short new analysis shows to what extent the shortage of skilled workers threatens the central political projects of the Federal Government. Read more Evaluation of Complementary Independent Participation Counselling (EUTB) 2023 | Project Together with the infas Institute for Applied Social Science and Prof. Dr. Gudrun Wansing, Prognos evaluated the available advice for persons with disabilities and their families over a five-year period. Read more Innovations for the mobility and space transition in NRW 2023 | Project update Mobility and spatial planning are key issues for the green economy. For this purpose, in cooperation with Prognos, the Kompetenznetzwerk Umweltwirtschaft.NRW compiled an innovation radar. Read more Was it the West’s intention to isolate Russia economically? It did not succeed. 2023 | Project Our new analysis shows: Trade with Russia has by no means completely collapsed. Read more Ressource efficiency in Bavaria ongoing | Project Efforts to reduce the consumption of resources in the Bavarian economy must be increased. A Prognos study provides information on the status quo and the starting points for savings. Read more Green Economy in Munich: Developments and potential 2023 | Project The green economy is an important economic factor for the city of Munich and its surrounding area. On behalf of the Bavarian capital, Prognos analysed the current situation and the development perspectives for the sector. Read more Just Transition Platform Conference: Carbon-Intensive Regions 2023-04-27 | Event Stakeholders of the European chemical industry exchange on their activities for a just transition towards climate neutrality. Read more Questions & answers on Prognos Read more Accompanying research on the FONA strategy ongoing | Project The Research for Sustainability (FONA) funding programme is intended to contribute to the achievement of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Will this target be achieved and which methods can be used to measure this? We investigate this together with partners for the BMBF. Read more Gas consumption in Germany’s production sectors 2023 | Project One potential building block: the Federal Network Agency commissioned Prognos to conduct a study that can support the necessary assessment in the case of gas shortages. Read more Ecological transformation and the labour market in Schleswig-Holstein ongoing | Project How many specialists will Schleswig-Holstein need to implement its climate protection measures? What are the key professions necessary for successful implementation? Read more DG REGIO – Evaluation of the European Green Deal ongoing | Project How effective has the EU cohesion policy been in driving green change in Europe? This and other questions are being investigated jointly with COWI, Milieu, and CSIL, on behalf of the European Commission (DG REGIO). Read more Webinar: Monitoring the Transition to Circular Economy 2023-02-07 | Event Jannis Lambert and Tim Bichlmeier talk about monitoring concepts for the Circular Economy and present a self-assessment tool. Read more Dutch Circular Economy Week: Workshop on circular business models 2023-02-09 | Event Greta Dekker presents the work of the Green Economy Network (KNUW) and introduces participants to circular business models using a learning game. Read more Germany’s business model 2023 2023 | Project Why politicians and companies need to act consistently - and how they can do so. Joint study with BayernLB. Read more Are globalization and Germany’s business model on the way out? Why policymakers and companies need to act decisively – and how they can ensure future success. Joint study with BayernLB. Read more Inflation – extra burden and relief for family households 2022 | Project Calculations on inflation-related additional private household expenditure and the work of the Federal Government's relief package. Read more The effects of Chinese subsidies on Germany 2022 | Project Prognos examined the potential impact of Chinese subsidy practices on Germany in three core sectors of the German economy. Read more Adobe Stock - CleverStock About us Prognos – Providing Orientation. Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound. Learn more