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Latest interim results

Energy Efficiency Roadmap 2045

Client

Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection

Year

ongoing


The third plenary session of the “Energy Efficiency Roadmap 2045” took place on June 1. The sector-specific and cross-sectoral working groups presented key points concerning which measures and instruments can be used to achieve climate neutrality by 2045. The science team favours an ambitious CO2 price and long-term vision and clarity within the regulatory framework. In addition, the results of a stakeholder survey were also presented. The recommendations of the scientific team will be incorporated into an interim report. Under Prognos’ leadership, the scientific team is supporting the dialogue process headed by the BMWi.

The science team consists of Prognos, the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research Heidelberg, and the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy.

“Energy Efficiency Roadmap 2045” dialogue forum

The “Energy Efficiency Roadmap 2045” dialogue forum was launched by the Federal Government in 2020. It discusses how climate neutrality can be achieved by 2045 and what will need to be done from an energy efficiency perspective. In an exchange with representatives from science, business, and civil society, concrete measures to increase energy efficiency are to be developed. These will be incorporated into the “Energy Efficiency Roadmap 2045,” which will be presented in autumn 2022. The roadmap will include a catalogue of measures as well as various scenarios. It is a central component of the German energy efficiency strategy.

Milestones

The first two plenary sessions took place in May and November 2020. A total of six plenary sessions will be held by autumn 2022. The working groups met for the third time in April 2021. A total of five meetings are planned for the working groups. Both the sector-specific working groups (buildings, industry, and transport) and cross-sector working groups (digitalisation, skilled workers and qualifications and system-related questions) presented their findings and recommendations for action at the third plenary session on June 1. These are to be included in the Roadmap Interim Report, to be released shortly.

Information on the “Energy Efficiency Roadmap  2045” in German (BMWi website)

"What is the Energy Efficiency Roadmap?" The roadmap in the BMWi’s “Energiewende direkt” newsletter (in German)

Prognos project team: Friedrich Seefeldt, Nora Langreder, Nils Thamling, Silvia Dominkovic

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Friedrich Seefeldt

Partner, Director

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Our work on this topic

Take a look at our latest projects and activities.

Electricity grid expansion makes headway

2020
| Project

For over 15 years now Prognos has been bringing together the actors concerned by the expansion of the electricity grid and facilitating dialogue between them – from the Danish to the Swiss bor-der.

Support for the Just Transition Platform

2024
| Project

Through the Just Transition Platform (JTP), the EU supports the member states and regions in achieving their climate targets in a fair manner. Prognos provided the JTP with in-depth analyses and knowledge management.

12th Energy Transition Monitoring

2024
| Project

The energy transition is still lagging behind its goals – such are the findings of our 12th Monitoring Report. In two of the four areas, the lights remain on red.

Annual Energy Transition Monitoring

ongoing
| Project

What is the status of the energy transition in Germany? Since 2012, Prognos has been monitoring the energy transition in Bavaria and Germany on behalf of the vbw.

German energy market design

2024
| Project

In the coming years new renewable power plants will have to be built – but also flexible gas power plants, which can be used when required. We examined various incentive instruments on behalf of the vbw.

Energate Forum: Industry meets Energy

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At the energate Forum, energy market expert Sven Kreidelmeyer will give a keynote speech on the topic: Quo vadis energy prices.

Alternative transport scenario for Germany

2024
| Project

Environmental organisations have tasked Prognos with adapting selected assumptions from the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure transport forecasts to facilitate climate-friendly transport development.

Ex-post analysis of energy consumption in Switzerland 2022

2023
| Project update

Final energy consumption in Switzerland for the year 2022 was around 4 percent less than in the year 2021. Mobility (32 percent) accounted for the largest share.

Socioeconomic scenarios for Switzerland

ongoing
| Project

What will Switzerland look like in the future? A welfare state in a fair world or an energy guzzler in fortress Europe? We examine the potential impacts of different scenarios on greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate path implementation in Baden-Württemberg

2024
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In Baden-Württemberg, emissions are to be reduced by a further 23% by 2030. As part of a multi-stage concept, Prognos examines the challenges and opportunities for action in the transfor-mation context.

Natural gas as a bridge to climate neutrality in Germany

2023
| Project

How has the role of gas changed as a result of the gas crisis? Our energy team explored this question on behalf of the KfW.

Climate-impacting transformation in the transport sector

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Reforming environmentally harmful subsidies

2023
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On behalf of the Bertelsmann Stiftung, we examined the effects of phasing out climate damaging subsidies in the transport and industry sectors.

Communication support for the building of the 380 kV West Coast Line

2023
| Project

The extension of the energy network lays the foundation for the energy transition. Since 2019, Prognos has been supporting transmission system operator TenneT TSO GmbH with their project communication concerning the establishment of the new West Coast transmission line in Schleswig-Holstein.

Analyses of Swiss energy use

ongoing
| Project

On behalf of the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE), we conduct an annual analysis of the development of energy consumption in Switzerland.

Energy prices for industry, an international comparison

2023
| Project

Our study for the vbw compares electricity and gas prices for industry worldwide and provides a price development outlook up to the year 2030.

The Circular Week 2023

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| Event

From October 24th to 25th, Hanne Hagedorn will be in Warsaw for the Green Economy Network.NRW as part of the Circular Economy Week 2023.

Supply chains: no climate neutrality without raw materials

2023
| Project

Crises continue to put global trade routes at risk. This study by Prognos and partners indicates the measures necessary to secure strategically important supply chains.

Implementation of the European Green Deal through EU cohesion policy

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The EU’s C4T platform supports structurally weak regions in their transition to a carbon-free and resilient Europe. In this context, Prognos is responsible for establishing a scientific forum.

Electricity price forecast 2023

2023
| Project

In the medium and long term, average wholesale electricity prices are above the 2019/2020 level. Our updated scenarios for the vbw.

Article in "Die Volkswirtschaft": EU reaction to electricity prices

2023
| Expertise

The liberalisation of the electricity markets in the EU was once supposed to reduce costs. Sven Kreidelmeyer writes in the Swiss magazine "Die Volkswirtschaft" about the effects of free competition and current developments in the European electricity sector, among other things.

Climate policy classification for LNG

2023
| Project

How much LNG can it be? Prognos prepared two studies for the German government's Science Platform for Climate Protection (WPKS) to address this question.

Green electricity atlas

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What do the targets of the Renewable Energy Sources Act mean for the German regions? The Prognos Energieatlas shows the availability of green electricity – in all 400 districts and independent cities.

Economic efficiency of heat pumps

2023
| Project

For a paper by Environmental Action Germany, we provided case studies on the question of whether the switch to heat pumps in typical single- and multi-family homes is more economical than exchanging gas boilers.

Decarbonisation of raw materials industries in Germany

2022
| Project

A study for the Bertelsmann Stiftung shows which climate policy measures can best support the switch to low-emission production processes.

Accompanying research on the FONA strategy

ongoing
| Project

The Research for Sustainability (FONA) funding programme is intended to contribute to the achievement of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Will this target be achieved and which methods can be used to measure this? We investigate this together with partners for the BMBF.

Gas consumption in Germany’s production sectors

2023
| Project

One potential building block: the Federal Network Agency commissioned Prognos to conduct a study that can support the necessary assessment in the case of gas shortages.

Background paper for a buildings strategy for climate neutrality

2023
| Project

How can existing buildings become climate-neutral by 2045? On behalf of the BMWK, we developed scenarios and measures.

Gas balance: Too little is being saved

2023
| Project update

Although German gas storage tanks remain at good levels, our vbw monitoring revealed that sav-ings due to behavioural changes were no longer detectable.

Accelerated climate protection does pay off

2023
| Project

If the expansion of renewable energy and the implementation of efficiency measures are ac-celerated, electricity prices will fall more quickly, and the GDP will grow faster. These were the findings of our short study for the INSM.

Ecological transformation and the labour market in Schleswig-Holstein

ongoing
| Project

How many specialists will Schleswig-Holstein need to implement its climate protection measures? What are the key professions necessary for successful implementation?

Overall impact of climate change, mitigation and adaptation on the German economy

ongoing
| Project

For the first time, an expert report for the Federal Ministry of Economics will jointly assess the economic impact of climate change, mitigation and adaptation.

Sustainable end-of-life vehicle recycling

2023
| Project

Circular economy in practice: As part of the MaterialLoop project, we have been working with Audi and TSR on how more materials from end-of-life vehicles can be used in the production of new vehicles.

DG REGIO – Evaluation of the European Green Deal

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| Project

How effective has the EU cohesion policy been in driving green change in Europe? This and other questions are being investigated jointly with COWI, Milieu, and CSIL, on behalf of the European Commission (DG REGIO).

Mild weather in winter takes off the pressure

2023
| Project update

So far, Germany has made it through the winter with relatively little gas. But savings will still be necessary if a gas shortage is to be prevented.

Policy Paper MEPS: Minimum efficiency standards for existing buildings

2023
| Project

Energy-efficient building renovation is an important part of achieving climate protection goals in the buildings sector. A brief summary of the role of MEPS within this context.

11th Energy Transition Monitoring

2023
| Project

Our data shows: As the expansion of renewable energies has been particularly paralysed, a lot still needs to happen in the coming years if Germany is to achieve its energy and climate goals.

Increased climate benefits thanks to European waste management

2022
| Project

What contribution does European waste management make to achieving the Paris climate agreement goals?

Regulation of third-party access to heating networks

2022
| Project

The EU Commission wants to make third-party access to district heating networks mandatory. We assessed the consequences for Germany and the possible contribution to decarbonisation on behalf of the BMWK.

Evaluation and further development of the national Emissions Trading System (nETS)

2022
| Project

On behalf of the Federal Environment Agency, we are developing suitable approaches for the impact assessment of the nETS together with the FÖS and the DIW.

Impact of e-commerce on CO2 emissions and air pollution

2022
| Project

We examined retail transport chains for the EU Commission. For the environment, long-distance transport to the EU and the “last mile” play a crucial role.

The gas gap is getting smaller, but we’re not in the clear

2022
| Project update

Reducing gas demand is the decisive lever for averting a gas shortage situation in the coming winter of 2023/24.

Eleven measures to achieve 2030 climate target

2022
| Project

Germany risks not hitting its 2030 climate objectives. The Forum Ökologisch-Soziale Marktwirtschaft proposes eleven measures. We assessed their impact on climate protection in the transport and building sectors.

Close-up on heat pumps

2022
| Project

Due to increased gas prices, heat pumps are significantly more economical than fossil fuel heaters for average renovated apartment buildings.

Disruption to gas supply – consequences for the brick industry

2022
| Project

A study of the production, value-added, and price effects on and through the brick and tile industry in Germany for the Federal Association of the German Brick and Tile Industry.

Electricity price forecast

2022
| Project

How will the price of electricity develop over the next few years? A scenario calculation of wholesale electricity prices for the vbw.

No generational conflict: Young and old are primarily looking for security.

2022
| Project

Study compares “boomers” and Generation Z: high need for security for young and old alike.

Gas shortfall less than expected, prices remain high

2022
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The gas reservoirs are full, and gas shortages are likely to be significantly less of a problem than feared. However, high gas prices have become almost too expensive for some companies to pay.

Green finance's contribution to achieving climate neutrality in Germany

2022
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What is the public share of climate protection investment? An investigation for the KfW.

Status of the gas supply

2022
| Project update

What is the latest on the gas supply in Germany? How high is demand? How high are gas storage levels? What would the damage be to the German economy if delivery failed completely?

About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

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