Back to the project overview

Care Perspective. Reorientation of the elderly care profession

Client

Bertelsmann Stiftung

Year

2019

The aging of the German population will lead to a further increase in the financial requirements of social long-term care insurance in the future. Prognos for the Bertelsmann Stiftung is investigating the extent to which expenditure and contribution rates could rise by 2045.

The annual expenditure for social long-term care insurance will continue to rise in the coming decades - from currently around 38.5 billion euros to nominally over 144.9 billion euros in 2045.

The current contribution rate of 3.05 percent could rise to 4.25 percent by 2045.

One reason for this development is demographics. As the number of elderly people increases, so will the number of those who will be dependent on care in old age. On the other hand, the proportion of people who care for their relatives themselves will continue to decline in the future. This will drive up expenditure on professional care.

The forecast is the first partial result of a more comprehensive study commissioned by the Bertelsmann Stiftung on the upgrading of care professions for the elderly and their financing.

Background

As of 1 January 2019, the contribution rate rose by 0.5 percentage points to 3.05 per cent as a result of the reform. At this level, it is forecast to cover costs up to and including 2024.

Read the Press Release of the Bertelsmann Foundation (in German only)
Read the study (in German only) Read the study (in German only)

Authors:

Dr. Oliver Ehrentraut, Gwendolyn Huschik

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Dr Oliver Ehrentraut

Head of the economics division, Partner, Director

View profile

Gwendolyn Huschik

Project Manager

View profile

Our work on this topic

Take a look at our latest projects and activities.

Fernrohr mit Blick über einen See in der Schweiz.

Integration: Strengthen cooperation between districts, associated municipalities & cities

2019

For the Robert Bosch Foundation, Prognos conducted a workshop with integration stakeholders from districts, municipalities, and cities.

Bühnenbild

Germany Report 2025|2035|2045

2018

Germany will become more global, more digital, greener and older in the next 30 years. This is shown by Prognos Deutschland Report from 2018/2019.

Menschen laufen auf einem Marktplatz

Calculation tool turns users into 'pension ministers'

2018

What are the financial implications of possible changes in the pension system? With the virtual calculation tool ‘Pension Minister’ central levers of pension insurance can be operated.

Zwei Kolleginnen sitzen an einem Tisch und sprechen über ein Dokument.

Women & retirement provision

2018

A stronger employment orientation for women can help to stabilise the public pension system – while also benefitting their own financial position in old age.

Projekte und Studien

Pension Perspectives 2040

2015

How high the pensions will be for a typical employee depends, among other things, on the occupation and the place of residence. This is the result of recent research by Prognos for GDV.

Adobe Stock - CleverStock

About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

Learn more