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Care Perspective. Reorientation of the elderly care profession


Bertelsmann Stiftung



The aging of the German population will lead to a further increase in the financial requirements of social long-term care insurance in the future. Prognos for the Bertelsmann Stiftung is investigating the extent to which expenditure and contribution rates could rise by 2045.

The annual expenditure for social long-term care insurance will continue to rise in the coming decades - from currently around 38.5 billion euros to nominally over 144.9 billion euros in 2045.

The current contribution rate of 3.05 percent could rise to 4.25 percent by 2045.

One reason for this development is demographics. As the number of elderly people increases, so will the number of those who will be dependent on care in old age. On the other hand, the proportion of people who care for their relatives themselves will continue to decline in the future. This will drive up expenditure on professional care.

The forecast is the first partial result of a more comprehensive study commissioned by the Bertelsmann Stiftung on the upgrading of care professions for the elderly and their financing.


As of 1 January 2019, the contribution rate rose by 0.5 percentage points to 3.05 per cent as a result of the reform. At this level, it is forecast to cover costs up to and including 2024.

Read the Press Release of the Bertelsmann Foundation (in German only)
Read the study (in German only) Read the study (in German only)


Dr. Oliver Ehrentraut, Gwendolyn Huschik

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Dr Oliver Ehrentraut

Head of the economics division, Partner, Director

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Gwendolyn Huschik

Project Manager

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