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Energy projections 2030/2050

Client

Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection

Year

2020


On behalf of the Federal Ministry of Economics, Prognos has determined whether the Federal Government’s climate protection package will be sufficient for Germany to achieve its climate targets by 2030.

The evaluation shows: Germany will fall short of its self-determined climate targets for 2030 – albeit only marginally. The impact of the climate protection programme was examined in the following sectors – transport; building; electricity and district heating generation, as well as other transformation; industry; agriculture; and waste sectors.

According to the expert report, in all sectors except waste, the targets are not achieved. While targets are clearly missed in the building and the transport sectors, in particular, the missed targets in the industrial and conversion sectors are comparatively low.

Overall, the results show that the effects of the German government’s climate protection package are not yet sufficient for Germany to achieve its targets by 2030. In order to comply with the agreed aims, greenhouse gas emissions would require further reduction in all areas (except waste).

For the purposes of the climate target assessment, two scenarios were calculated for the entire German energy system using linked, bottom-up simulation models for the entire energy system:

  • a reference development based on the policy measures introduced by the end of 2017 and continuing current trends
  • a scenario that takes into account the measures of the Climate Action Plan 2030

The measures considered are essentially based on the September 2019  Climate Protection Programme resolution and follow-up decisions, such as the Mediation Committee’s compromise for the December 18, 2019, climate package. Current EU regulations, such as the RED II and fleet limit values for transport, are also included in the set of measures.

Report on the BMWi website (in German)
BMWi press release (in German)

Project team: Dr Andreas Kemmler, Dr Almut Kirchner, Alex Auf der Maur, Florian Ess, Sven Kreidelmeyer, Dr Alexander Piégsa, Dr Thorsten Spillmann, Marco Wünsch, Inka Ziegenhagen

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Dr Andreas Kemmler

Senior Project Manager

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Dr Almut Kirchner

Partner, Director

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Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

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