Net zero in industry: The market potential of climate-neutral process heat

Client

Deutsche Unternehmensinitiative Energieeffizienz e.V. (DENEFF)

Year

2025


If industry becomes CO2-neutral by 2050 as planned, this will also benefit the labour market and gross value added in Germany and the EU. This is shown by a short study conducted by Prognos on behalf of the German Energy Efficiency Business Initiative (DENEFF). The study focused on industrial process heat, which accounts for a large proportion of industrial greenhouse gas emissions.

These market opportunities are contingent on the climate targets being achieved. The study also showed that the more ambitious the CO2 reduction path, the greater the market growth.

Dynamic growth in recent years

The short study revealed the following key figures for the green industrial heat sector:

  • The number of employees grew by 70 percent between 2010 and 2023 to around 60,000.
  • Gross value added rose by 16 percent in 2023 compared to the previous year to 5.5 billion euros.
  • Both figures developed much more dynamically than the overall economy, but also than the GreenTech sector as a whole.
  • The largest share of this was accounted for by installation/consulting services and industrial heat pumps, which were also the most important German export goods within green process heating technologies.

The more ambitious the goals, the greater the growth

Assuming that Germany and the EU meet their climate targets for 2030 and 2050, the study forecasts the following growth rates:

  • In Germany, the market volume of greenhouse gas-neutral process heat could potentially grow by a factor of 5 by 2030 and by a factor of 18 by 2050.
  • The number of employees in Germany could rise to 270.000 by 2030 and to more than one million by 2050.
  • In terms of gross value added, growth to 25 billion euros by 2030 and 91 billion euros by 2050 is possible.
  • At the EU level, the market volume could grow by a factor of 10 by 2030 and by a factor of 22 by 2050.

Our approach

To calculate the key figures, we used the envigos model for GreenTech markets developed by Prognos.

Our study was based on the following key questions:

  • What is the current market volume (gross value added, number of employees) in Germany for technologies for climate-neutral industrial process heat?
  • How significant is their current economic relevance compared to other areas of transformation and to the overall economy in Germany?
  • What global market share do German and European companies currently have in these technologies, and who exports how much to whom?
  • How will the market volume (gross value added, number of employees) of these technologies develop if Germany achieves its climate targets in 2030 and 2050?

Links and downloads

To the study (PDF, in German)

Project team: Philipp Hutzenthaler, Dr Kirsten Kubin, Jannis Lambert, Dr Alexander Piégsa, Friedrich Seefeldt

Last update: 26.05.2025

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Philipp Hutzenthaler

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Dr Alexander Piegsa

Senior Expert Models & Industry

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