Occupational safety in the context of climate change

Client

German Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs (BMAS)

Year

2026


A single heat day costs the German economy 431 million euros. Our study for the German Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs (BMAS) examines how preventive, climate-change-friendly occupational safety measures can help to mitigate the damage.

What does a single heat day mean for the economy?

Our analysis reveals how profoundly heat affects everyday working life. One day with temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius causes:

  • direct costs: 431 million euros per hot day
    • 97 percent of which is due to productivity losses
    • 13 million euros due to absences and accidents at work
  • health impact: 76,500 days of absence due to heat-induced illnesses and accidents per hot day

Heat acts primarily as a “silent” productivity factor: most employees continue to work – but less efficiently.

Work areas involving high physical exertion or outdoor activities are particularly affected:

  • Agriculture and forestry
  • Construction
  • Manufacturing
  • Transport and storage

The calculation does not take into account other potential burdens, such as extreme years and heat waves or long-term health consequences. The true costs are therefore likely to be higher.

Additional burdens by 2060

Based on the climate projections of the German Weather Service (DWD), the RCP8.5 scenario predicts the following additional annual burdens:

  • 5 to 10 additional hot days (2031-2060)
  • 2.1 to 4.5 billion euros in direct annual costs for companies
  • an additional 4.2 to 9 billion euros annually in indirect costs
  • southern Germany is particularly affected: Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg would incur up to 700 million euros in additional costs per year

Climate adaptation in occupational safety must therefore be tailored to each region – there is no “one-size-fits-all” solution.

The results clearly show that occupational safety is a strategic lever for climate adaptation – and an economic imperative. Every euro invested in preventive, climate-change-friendly occupational safety helps to avoid billions in damage in the future.

Our approach

Our study is the first to systematically quantify the heat-related costs for companies in Germany.

The following aspects were taken into account:

  • three key impact channels (productivity, absenteeism, accidents)
  • climate projections by the DWD in the RCP8.5 scenario
  • regional differences by federal state
  • sector-specific burdens
  • indirect economic effects using input-output modelling

Links & downloads

To the study (PDF, in German)

Further information on the BMAS website (in German)

Project team: Oliver Lühr, Sina Rühland, Lukas Sander, Paulin Zahn

Last update: 21.04.2026 

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Lukas Sander

Senior Project Manager | Head of Climate Impacts and Adaptation

View profile

Oliver Lühr

Partner, Head of Environmental, Circular Economy & Climate Change

View profile

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