Socioeconomic scenarios for Switzerland

The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have shown just how much the emission of climate-damaging greenhouse gases also depends on social factors – factors that, at first glance, appear to have nothing to do with energy. Modelling various social, political and economic trajectories can therefore help policymakers to identify risks and make long-term strategic decisions.

Our study focuses on exploratory scenarios that do not provide forecasts, but rather depict a range of plausible futures in the form of if-then relationships.

The project is based on the following socio-economic development pathways (SSPs), which were identified by the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL):

1. Frugal Switzerland: In this scenario, the common good is highly valued by the Swiss population. Trust in political institutions is also high. The population consciously chooses a low level of consumption. The financial standard of living declines. Income and wealth are distributed evenly across society. Regional centres and urban neighbourhoods provide good basic regional services. The degree of self-sufficiency in energy and food is high.

2. Efficient Switzerland: In this scenario, Switzerland is highly technologised and has developed into an efficient circular economy with strong international integration. The population benefits from the value creation of a growing economy. Constant immigration leads to highly densified cities. Land consumption rises moderately, whilst environmental awareness among the population is very high. The supply of renewable energy is secure, largely domestic and partly imported.

3. Conflict-ridden Switzerland: In this scenario, Switzerland experiences political polarisation, corruption and a decline in prosperity. Investment and innovation are in decline and the economy is shrinking. Unemployment and emigration are rising, and companies are closing down or relocating. The welfare state is being dismantled. International relations are severely curtailed, and Switzerland is becoming increasingly isolated.

4. Unequal Switzerland: In this scenario, Swiss society is divided. An elite dominates economic and political affairs. This elite is well-connected internationally and maintains a resource-intensive lifestyle. Thanks to productivity-boosting technologies, the economy grows until the end of the century. The resulting productivity gains mainly benefit the elite, whilst job opportunities for the middle class are increasingly disappearing or shifting to the low-wage sector.

5. Resource-intensive Switzerland: In this scenario, Switzerland experiences strong economic growth and high levels of immigration. The increasing consumption of fossil fuels, combined with resource-intensive lifestyles, places a heavy strain on the environment. Towards the end of the century, rising resource prices and the costs of environmental degradation lead to declining economic output and a loss of prosperity.

All the scenarios examined in the project are exploratory. They do not describe target pathways and do not assign probabilities of occurrence. The modelling covering the period up to 2100 is subject to uncertainties, but allows for a systematic and comparable analysis of very different, yet internally consistent futures. A detailed presentation of the assumptions and results can be found in the technical report Greenhouse gas emissions under various socio-economic and climate policy scenarios for Switzerland (in German).