German Centre for Rail Transport Research (DZSF) at the Federal Railway Authority (EBA)
ongoing
SSP Consult, PTV Transport Consult, AtmoVera Max Ulrich e.K.
Flooded streets, dried-up rivers, broken asphalt:extreme weather events cause significant damage to transport infrastructure.
These events increasingly threaten the functionality and safety of the transport network. In view of the increase in extreme weather events due to climate change, it is necessary to analyse and quantify their effects at an early stage.
The German Centre for Rail Transport Research at the Federal Railway Office commissioned a consortium led by Prognos to model three exemplary extreme weather events and their effects on the transport and logistics system, as well as the economic consequences, in the form of a stress test.
In this project, we are investigating how three specific extreme weather events affect the transport and logistics system in Germany. The scenarios examined include
We not only analyse the direct consequences for traffic, but also economic effects such as relocation and recovery costs, as well as indirect damage caused by delivery failures and delays.
To investigate the effects of extreme weather on traffic, we conduct stress tests. We simulate detailed traffic scenarios to analyse the behaviour of the logistics system under various extreme weather conditions.
The simulation results help us to identify and quantitatively assess the economic impacts of extreme weather events. We also develop recommendations for action to increase the resilience of the infrastructure to future extreme weather events and to support targeted risk reduction measures.
Project team: Sven Altenburg, Jens Fiedler, Ben Gibbels, Hans-Paul Kienzler, Milena Miechielsen, Robert Norpoth, Lukas Sander
Last update: 14.04.2025
Project Manager
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