Social heat transition

Client

Agora Energiewende

Year

2025

Partner

Fraunhofer IEE


The heat transition is essential for climate protection and affects every household in Germany. Despite advanced technical solutions, most people still heat their homes with fossil fuels. In order to achieve climate targets in the building sector, broad investment in climate-neutral heating and thermal insulation is required. However, many homeowners do not have the financial means to do so, while tenants often have little influence on necessary modernisation measures.

Together with Fraunhofer IEE, we have conducted a study on the social heat transition on behalf of Agora Energiewende. It shows how the right policy mix can enable the social heat transition without further straining already tense social conditions.

Key findings

  • Feasibility of the heating transition: Climate-neutral modernisation can be implemented in a socially acceptable manner. The key is to introduce climate-neutral heating technologies, encourage homeowners to invest and protect tenants from high costs.
  • Policy mix for success: A balanced policy mix is crucial to promote rapid investment. This includes the expansion of heating and electricity networks and clear guidelines for the use of renewable energies when replacing heating systems.
  • Support for low-income households: Low-income households need targeted support. Reallocated subsidies can cover almost all modernisation costs, supplemented by measures to limit rent increases.
  • Stability of heating costs through swift action: With the proposed policy mix, building emissions can be reduced to zero by 2045, while heating costs remain at today’s level. This makes consumers independent of fossil fuel imports and strengthens the energy supply.

Our approach

We supported Fraunhofer IEE’s modelling (based on an agent-based model) with extensive data and sector-specific target scenarios. In addition, we supported Agora Energiewende with strategic and instrumental considerations regarding the heat transition in existing buildings.

Links and downloads

To the study (PDF)

More information (agora-energiewende.de)

Project team: Friedrich Seefeldt, Nils Thamling

Last update: 31.07.2025

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Friedrich Seefeldt

Partner, Director

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Nils Thamling

Principal

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