Bavarian Business Association (vbw)
2023
For more than a decade, the world economic order, which has been relatively stable for decades, has been in a state of upheaval. Geopolitical tensions between democratic countries and authori-tarian states are increasing. At the centre of these tensions is the rivalry between the United States and China. On behalf of the Bavarian Business Association, Prognos outlines scenarios for a deglobalised world economy. This reveals the effects that an intensification of the disputes could have on the German and European economies.
Should a massive economic confrontation between the US and China occur, the EU and Germany could be faced with the choice of having to choose "one side".
All three decision options would entail serious negative economic consequences. An analysis of the economic links shows that European countries are the most important trading partners for both the EU countries and Germany. But economic exchange with non-European countries is also of great importance:
Not a positive outlook. Nevertheless, being a global economic heavyweight, the EU has a strong negotiating position. It could, to some extent, try to avoid being involved in the conflict between the USA and China. The EU’s position would be strengthened if it succeeds in binding non-aligned states and non-EU countries more closely to it economically and politically.
After outlining the scenarios, a comprehensive statistical data analysis was carried out. Prognos used, among others, the Prognos World Trade Model, multi-regional input-output calculations and data from the PATSTAT database of the European Patent Office, investment data from Eurostat and foreign trade data from the UN Comtrade database.
To the study (vbw website in German)
Project team: Jakob Ambros, Dr Michael Böhmer, Philipp Anton Kreutzer, Johann Weiß
Last update: 31.07.2023
Senior Project Manager
Project Manager
In recent years, Europe has maintained its strong position in the global market for clean energy technologies, but faces growing competition. On behalf of the European Commission, we examined the competitiveness of these technologies.
Germany needs around 166,000 additional full-time places for primary school children by the summer. We are examining how this can be achieved for the Federal Ministry of Education.
How effective are EU cohesion and structural policies in driving green change in Europe? We examined this and other questions together with COWI, Milieu and CSIL on behalf of the European Commission (DG REGIO).
How can smart specialisation be empirically justified and managed? On behalf of the European Commission (DG REGIO), Prognos is implementing the S3 Community of Practice (S3 CoP) together with a network of partners.
For the European Observation Network for Territorial Development and Cohesion (ESPON), we are investigating how regions can work together more effectively to protect the climate.
The Single Market Programme promotes the EU internal market in order to strengthen it, standardise it and make it more competitive. Prognos was involved in the mid-term evaluation of the programme.
To facilitate the transition to a climate-neutral economy, Prognos is supporting the European Commission in implementing the European Fair Transition Observatory (EFTO).
How do refugees with disabilities live in Germany? And how can they find work? We are addressing these issues in a study for the German Red Cross.
Prognos developed a methodology for Eurostat for regular data collection for the European Environmental Goods and Services Sector (EGSS).
We conducted a mid-term evaluation of the Programme Interreg Bavaria-Czech Republic 2021-2027 on behalf of the Bavarian State Ministry of Economic Affairs, Regional Development and Energy.
We combine economic research and strategy consulting for sustainable decisions in politics, business and society. Our robust data, precise analyses and scientifically based findings enable fact-based progress – financially independent, politically neutral.
