Bavarian Business Association (vbw)
2023
For more than a decade, the world economic order, which has been relatively stable for decades, has been in a state of upheaval. Geopolitical tensions between democratic countries and authori-tarian states are increasing. At the centre of these tensions is the rivalry between the United States and China. On behalf of the Bavarian Business Association, Prognos outlines scenarios for a deglobalised world economy. This reveals the effects that an intensification of the disputes could have on the German and European economies.
Should a massive economic confrontation between the US and China occur, the EU and Germany could be faced with the choice of having to choose "one side".
All three decision options would entail serious negative economic consequences. An analysis of the economic links shows that European countries are the most important trading partners for both the EU countries and Germany. But economic exchange with non-European countries is also of great importance:
Not a positive outlook. Nevertheless, being a global economic heavyweight, the EU has a strong negotiating position. It could, to some extent, try to avoid being involved in the conflict between the USA and China. The EU’s position would be strengthened if it succeeds in binding non-aligned states and non-EU countries more closely to it economically and politically.
After outlining the scenarios, a comprehensive statistical data analysis was carried out. Prognos used, among others, the Prognos World Trade Model, multi-regional input-output calculations and data from the PATSTAT database of the European Patent Office, investment data from Eurostat and foreign trade data from the UN Comtrade database.
To the study (vbw website in German)
Project team: Jakob Ambros, Dr Michael Böhmer, Philipp Anton Kreutzer, Johann Weiß
Last update: 31.07.2023
Senior Project Manager
Project Manager
The automotive industry continues to undergo fundamental change worldwide. How does this transformation affect the Saarland economy?
What are the biggest sales opportunities? How can the location gain visibility worldwide? Further development of the strategic foundations.
DG Regio's new platform aims to help EU regions develop strategies to attract talent. Prognos is, among other things, leading the knowledge generation.
The liberalisation of the electricity markets in the EU was once supposed to reduce costs. Sven Kreidelmeyer writes in the Swiss magazine "Die Volkswirtschaft" about the effects of free competition and current developments in the European electricity sector, among other things.
Why it’s time for Germany to take an honest look at itself. A guest commentary in the WirtschaftsWoche by Dr Michael Böhmer.
The aim of Germany Trade and Invest (GTAI) is to promote German foreign trade. Prognos investigated whether they are using their budget effectively.
Retiring at 63 is very popular. In 2021 alone, more than 270,000 people took the option of early retirement. These were the findings of our study for the INSM.
A study for the Bertelsmann Stiftung shows which climate policy measures can best support the switch to low-emission production processes.
Mobility and spatial planning are key issues for the green economy. For this purpose, in cooperation with Prognos, the Kompetenznetzwerk Umweltwirtschaft.NRW compiled an innovation radar.
Together with the infas Institute for Applied Social Science and Prof. Dr. Gudrun Wansing, Prognos evaluated the available advice for persons with disabilities and their families over a five-year period.
Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.