Transport Energy and Emissions Model for Policy Optimisation

TEMPO can be used to determine transport demand, drive technologies, energy consumption by energy source, as well as greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector. It is used, among other things, to model energy scenarios and to assess the impact of policy measures. The model can be used to answer, for example, how climate policy transport measures should be designed, how many electric cars are necessary to achieve climate targets, or which technologies accelerate, how and when.

Firstly, TEMPO calculates the demand for passenger and freight transport. Modelling is carried out for all stages – from traffic (distance, tonnes), to transport performance (passenger and tonne-kilometres), to mileage (vehicle kilometres) – and is essentially based on the development of the population and economy. It is divided, in detail, according to the dimensions of journey purpose, types of transport, age groups, means of transport, types of space, and the types of cargo. This allows different measures  such as modal split effects, higher loading factors, or increased home office – to be examined on the basis of models for their traffic effect.

In a second module, TEMPO uses a logit model to calculate the annual structure of new registrations for passenger cars and commercial vehicles. The vehicles are segmented according to size category, drive system, user type, and driving performance. The logit model can also be used to investigate the effects of policy measures or price shocks on new registrations. The structure of new registrations by drive technology then serves as input for the third module, for the calculation of annual vehicle cohorts. Finally, in the fourth module, energy consumption and GHG emissions are calculated in a differentiated manner for energy sources and modes of transport (as well as many other dimensions).