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Analysis of climate paths in the transport sector 2030

Client

BDI Federation of German Industries

Year

2019

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The German government has set itself the target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80-85 percent by 2050 compared with 1990 levels. This target will be made more concrete and verifiable through sectoral and temporal intermediate targets. In the transport sector, this means reducing emissions by 40 percent by 2030 compared with 1990 levels. The economically cost-efficient path outlined in the study "Climate Paths for Germany" (2018) would achieve this reduction target by 2035 with already very ambitious scenarios.

However, if the target is to be reached by 2030, enormous efforts for politics, society and the economy would be unavoidable, because it would require the "exhaustion of all technical levers" and additional investments of between 243 and 256 billion euros compared to a "business as usual" development. Then the goal would theoretically be achievable.

The analysis by BCG (Boston Consulting Group) and Prognos for the BDI (BDI Federation of German Industries) was presented today, Friday, in Berlin, the Handelsblatt reported in the Friday edition.

Read the analysis (PDF, in German only))

Website BDI

Autorinnen und Autoren:

Dr. Almut Kirchner, Alex Auf der Maur, Samuel Straßburg (Prognos AG), Philipp Gebert, Andreas Jentzsch, Jens Burchardt, Maria Meiler (The Boston Consulting Group)

About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

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