Methodology

Zukunftsatlas methodology

For the purposes of the Zukunftsatlas ranking, we selected a quantitative approach based on objective statistical data. Subjective assessments of the population, for example, from surveys on satisfaction and quality of life, are not included. If you have questions about the methods and indicators you can find answers in our FAQ (in german).

Indicators

The regions’ future prospects are determined on the basis of 31 macro- and socio-economic indicators, which are included in an overall index. 

Overview of indicators (PDF, in German)

Strengths and dynamic

The "Strength" sub-index describes the status quo, i.e., the "current state" of a city or district. It allows statements about the location’s strengths and based on the strength indicators. The “Dynamic” sub-index makes it clear how a city or a district has developed over time. It is calculated with the help of the dynamic indicators.

The strength indicators are each given a weight of 1. Dynamic indicators that do not have a double in the strength indicators (e.g., population development), each have a weight of 1. Dynamic indicators that have a double in the strength indicators (e.g., unemployment) come in with a weight of 0.5.

Prognos Zukunftsatlas® strength map (PDF, in German)

Prognos Zukunftsatlas® dynamic map (PDF, in German)

Ranking

The ranking of the districts and cities is created on the basis of the future index. The region with the highest future index value gets first place and the region with the lowest future index value, place 400. At the same time, the 400 districts and cities are divided into eight future categories on the basis of the future index. Categories 1 to 4 dominate the future opportunities. Category 5 is distinguished by an even mix of opportunities and risks. Categories 6 to 8 are outweighed by future risks.

Comparison with previous Zukunftsatlas rankings

The 2025 edition of the Prognos Zukunftsatlas includes two new indicators that implicate sustainability more strongly in the ranking compared to the 2022 edition:

• As an additional strength indicator, "Renewable energy capacity (installed capacity per km² area)" is included in the ranking.
• The new dynamic indicator is "Development of the expansion of renewable energies (absolute addition of installed power in megawatts 2019-2023)".

In addition, we have adjusted the High Qualification indicator: 

• The strength indicator "Share of highly qualified employees" and the dynamic indicator "Change in the share of highly qualified employees" now include high-quality qualifications that do not require a university degree, (e.g. master craftsman). 

The most recent available data was used in each case. The survey ended in May 2025.

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