Back to the project overview

Study for ADAC

Automated driving spreads only slowly





Als PDF anzeigen

Automated driving will not be a mass phenomenon in the foreseeable future. In the year 2050 a maximum of every fifth vehicle kilometre is expected to be covered automatically. This is the result of a study by Prognos AG on behalf of ADAC e.V.

The study shows: By 2050, about half of all vehicles will already have an automation function. In most cases, however, this will only be usable on motorways. In addition, it cannot be assumed that drivers will be able to make full use of the functions immediately.

While on motorways a good 40 percent of the driving performance could already be achieved automatically, on country roads the figure is still less than 4 percent.

A significant penetration of vehicles that can drive automatically throughout the entire network is not to be expected until after 2050.

Since the share of automated driving performance by 2050 is still low, the safety effects will also be rather low by this time. These effects are most likely to occur in the reduction of material damage. Since the serious consequences of accidents occur particularly strongly on country roads, where automation will hardly have an effect until 2050, the effect of automation on road deaths will still be marginal until this point in time.

Read the study (PDF, in German only)


Sven Altenburg, Hans-Paul Kienzler, Alex Auf der Maur

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Sven Altenburg

Head of Mobility & Transport

View profile

Our work on this topic

Take a look at our latest projects and activities.

großes Frachtschiff mit Containern beladen fährt an einem Hafen und Hochhäusern dahinter vorbei

Prognos Economic Outlook® (PEO®)


In uncertain times, there is a growing demand for orientation. PEO® delivers independent figures. Based on our economic models we project the coming 25 years.

Personen fahren auf Rolltreppen hoch und runter

Germany's Global Value-Adding Network


Prognos analysed the value-added interdependencies of the German economy in the years 2000, 2008, and 2014.

Personen fahren auf Rolltreppen hoch und runter

“No-deal Brexit” no disaster for the German economy


Scenario analysis: The German economy need no longer fear a no-deal Brexit.

Weibliche Ingenieurin mit Schutzbrille arbeitet an einer Fertigungsanlage.

Work Landscape 2025


The "Labor Landscape" study series has been providing an overview of the development of labor demand and labor supply in Germany since 2008.

Titelbild des Prognos Zukunftsatlas 2019

Prognos Zukunftsatlas® 2019


How well equipped are Germany's districts and cities for the future? Who is ahead in the ranking, who needs to catch up? The Prognos Zukunftsatlas 2019 provides answers (in German).


Germany Report 2025 2035 2045


Germany will become more global, more digital, greener and older in the next 30 years. This is shown by Prognos Deutschland Report from 2018/2019.

Zwei Kolleginnen sitzen an einem Tisch und sprechen über ein Dokument.

Women & retirement provision


A stronger employment orientation for women can help to stabilise the public pension system – while also benefitting their own financial position in old age.

Mann mit VR-Brille gestikuliert vor einer Fertigungsmaschine

Importance of the German Economy for Europe


The study shows: A strong German economy creates value-added and employment in Europe.

Projekte und Studien

Pension Perspectives 2040


How high the pensions will be for a typical employee depends, among other things, on the occupation and the place of residence. This is the result of recent research by Prognos for GDV.

Adobe Stock - CleverStock

About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

Learn more