Automated driving will not be a mass phenomenon in the foreseeable future. In the year 2050 a maximum of every fifth vehicle kilometre is expected to be covered automatically. This is the result of a study by Prognos AG on behalf of ADAC e.V.
The study shows: By 2050, about half of all vehicles will already have an automation function. In most cases, however, this will only be usable on motorways. In addition, it cannot be assumed that drivers will be able to make full use of the functions immediately.
While on motorways a good 40 percent of the driving performance could already be achieved automatically, on country roads the figure is still less than 4 percent.
A significant penetration of vehicles that can drive automatically throughout the entire network is not to be expected until after 2050.
Since the share of automated driving performance by 2050 is still low, the safety effects will also be rather low by this time. These effects are most likely to occur in the reduction of material damage. Since the serious consequences of accidents occur particularly strongly on country roads, where automation will hardly have an effect until 2050, the effect of automation on road deaths will still be marginal until this point in time.
Sven Altenburg, Hans-Paul Kienzler, Alex Auf der Maur
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