Sparkasse Bremen AG
2024
What does the future hold for the year 2035? How will the economy and society have changed by then? What will the concrete effects of climate change be? Which technologies will determine the market?
External factors such as these have a decisive effect on the way companies will develop in the future. Taking a trip to the future in a time machine to have a look at how the environment has developed, would be one way of answering these questions. Sparkasse Bremen commissioned Prognos to take a look into the future. Although we don’t have a time machine, we do have strategic foresight. Strategic foresight systematically determines future developments and trends and prepares for these different scenarios, resulting in recommendations for action adapted to the company.
It was ten years ago that Prognos created the first scenarios for Sparkasse Bremen. The basis for this has now been adapted to the changed global situation and the data and projections for the time horizon up to 2035 have been updated.
Expanding on the first scenario-based environmental analysis commissioned by Sparkasse Bremen in 2014, a comprehensive update was undertaken and the most important influence factors were redetermined. Future projections were then established up to the year 2035, giving the company a far-reaching look into the future. Prognos used the different scenarios to form a company-relevant future image.
For this purpose, the question of relevance was placed at the beginning of the foresight process: Which success factors differentiate the company? Which of the many environmental factors have an influence on these success factors? How will they develop over the next ten years? How can company success be ensured in the context of these changed framework conditions?
On the basis of these key questions, Prognos analysed the future environment of Sparkasse Bremen and compiled qualitative and quantitative scenarios. The company will be subject to various external influences. The corporate strategy can thus be established based on how socio-cultural, political, technological, economic and ecological factors develop over the next ten years.
Various areas of influence were illustrated and ranked according to their relevance for Sparkasse Bremen. Some of the relevant influence factors, such as demographic development, can be quantitatively predicted. Other factors such as the future communication behaviours of the next generation of clients were qualitatively anticipated. Scenarios were then created for each relevant influencing factor, thus sharpening the focus on the probable and possible future.
Overall, the scenarios show the company what the future might bring. The environmental analysis thus provides orientation and the basis for further strategic planning.
To create the environmental scenario for the next ten years various methods were used:
Project team: Holger Bornemann, Renke Janshen, Christoph Keller, Helena Seide, Miguel Wahle
Latest update: 31.05.2024
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