Zukunftsatlas methodology

Zukunftsatlas methodology

For the Zukunftsatlas ranking, we chose a quantitative approach based on objective statistical data. Subjective assessments of the population, for example, from surveys about satisfaction and quality of life, are not included in the ranking. If you have questions about the methods and indicators, you can find answers in our FAQ (in german).

The indicators (german)

Strengths and dynamic

The “strength” sub-index describes the status quo, i.e., the “actual state” of a city or district. It allows statements about the strength of a location and based on the strength indicators. The “dynamic” sub-index makes it clear how a city or a district has developed over time. It is calcu-lated with the help of the dynamic indicators.

In the future index, the strength indicators each have a weight of 1.0 and the dynamic indica-tors each have a weight of 0.5.

Prognos Zukunftsatlas® strength map (PDF), in German

Prognos Zukunftsatlas® dynamic map (PDF), in German

Ranking

The districts and cities ranking is created on the basis of the future index. The region with the highest future index value is ranked 1 and the region with the lowest future index is ranked 400. At the same time, on the basis of the future index the 400 districts and cities are divided into eight future categories. In categories 1 to 4 future opportunities dominate. Category 5 is distinguished by an even mix of opportunities and risks. Categories 6 to 8 are outweighed by future risks.

Comparison with previous Zukunftsatlas rankings

In the indicator set of the Prognos Zukunftsatlas® 2022, four indicators were adjusted com-pared to the Zukunftsatlas 2019. The comparability with the previous rankings is nevertheless guaranteed. The most recent available data was used in each case. The closing date was July 2022.

Indicators: In comparison to the Zukunftsatlas 2019 the “Tertiary employment” indicator was replaced with “Digital trendsetter.” The indicator “Accessibility to federal motorways” was ex-tended with the inclusion of “accessibility to airports and ICE/IC/EC trains” to become the “In-frastructure index.” The “Top 500 companies with the highest turnover” indicator was expanded in the mid-sized sector to include the 10,000 most important medium-sized companies.

Number of districts: The Zukunftsatlas 2022 compares the current 400 districts and independ-ent cities. There is one less district than in the Zukunftsatlas 2019. This is because since 2021, the previous independent city of Eisenach has been part of the rural district of Wartburg.

Zukunftsatlas FAQ (german)