Against the background of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, the vbw – Bavarian Industry Association requested a scenario in which the possible consequences of an interruption to Russian gas supply were determined. This analysis was published on June 28, 2022. Under the hypothetical assumption of a supply interruption from July 01, 2022, the investigation revealed that supply to meet demand in Germany could fall short by around 154 TWh. This would have resulted in a massive slump in economic output in the second half of the year. In the meantime, the general conditions have changed at high speed and have led to a new assessment of the situation. This monitoring highlights the situation of the German gas supply as of August 31, 2022. It examines the effect of the delivery cut from 01 September 2022 with these results. Full reserves, too expensive The gas reservoirs were filled faster, and new floating LNG terminals will start operations later this year. This gives reason to hope that the gas shortfall will be less than assumed in the previous study or that there might be no shortfall at all. However, high gas prices have already led some industrial companies to (partially) stop production. Thus the “physical gas shortfall” is replaced by an “economic gas shortfall”. While the gas would be available, it will be prohibitively expensive for increasing parts of the industry, that is, unaffordable, as the markets do not allow unlimited cost sharing. Update (vbw.de, in German) More about our work in this project Last update: 30.9.2022 Do you have questions? Your contact at Prognos Jens Hobohm Partner, Director View profile About us Prognos – Providing Orientation. Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound. Learn more