„It is highly probable that a gas shortage can be avoided.“ Jens Hobohm On behalf the vbw – Association of the Bavarian Economy, we regularly examine the German gas supply. The current monitoring of the gas balance highlights the situation as of the beginning of February 2023. The Prognos gas team looked at four consumption scenarios and the associated gas balance development up to the end of 2024. The background: the complete delivery suspension of Russian gas volumes by pipeline to Germany since September 2022. Germany’s current gas supply Up until the end of December 2022, the weather was overall warmer than in previous years. As a result, at the end of December 2022, gas storage tanks were still 90 percent full. Germany continues to import large quantities of gas from Norway, while LNG imports from the world market via the Netherlands, France, and Belgium remain at a high level. The first floating LNG terminal was put into operation in November 2022, in Wilhelmshaven. In January (Lubmin) and February 2023, one further terminal followed and another three terminals are planned for winter 2023/24. This increases the security of supply – especially in terms of infrastructure. Although Russia has completely stopped its shipments to Germany, gas supplies from Russia to other EU Member States – in particular, LNG volumes – remain at a high level. We continue to observe consumption reductions for industrial and commercial companies as well as for private households. According to our analyses, however, savings due to behavioural changes in December were only around 5 percent compared to temperature-related gas consumption. The focus is now on winter 2023/2024 Our conclusion for the current gas balance: all in all, it is highly likely that a gas shortage situation can be prevented. “But it would be wrong to take this for granted. Uninterrupted, high-level imports are still required and the savings made should also remain at the level we have achieved so far,” Jens Hobohm, Director at Prognos, emphasised to the Handelsblatt. However, risks remain, in terms of temperature, the transport system (especially regarding the potential sabotage of import pipelines), saving successes, and the effect of political intervention. Whether it is possible to continue to successfully avert a bottleneck with the corresponding consequences for the economy, depends, above all, on whether Germany continues in its efforts to save and substitute. With a view to the coming winter, the uncertainties mentioned remain – nevertheless, the outlook can be cautiously viewed with confidence. Links and downloads More information about the study in German (vbw website) Previous monitorings Project team: Jens Hobohm, Dr Fabian Muralter, Sebastian Lübbers, Dr Michael Böhmer Last update: 10.2.2023 Do you have questions? Your contact at Prognos Jens Hobohm Partner, Director View profile Sebastian Lübbers Project Manager View profile About us Prognos – Providing Orientation. Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound. Learn more