OVERLAP: Project results

The European labour market is facing immense challenges. The OVERLAP project has shown that demographic change, digital transformation and the need for a green transition are simultaneously affecting regions across the EU. These complex interactions are leading to significant regional differences in employment trends and require decisive political action.

Overview of the results of the OVERLAP project

Demographic changes and their effects

The ageing population is increasing the proportion of older people. Southern and Eastern Europe in particular must prepare for growing age-related burdens.
By 2050, about 30 per cent of the ESPON population may be 65 or older; the working-age population (15–64) will shrink in many countries, further exacerbating the shortage of skilled workers.

The digital transformation

Digitalisation increasingly requires employees to have technological skills. There is a particular shortage of skilled workers in the field of information and communication technology (ICT), which is hampering economic development in many regions.
The digital divide between cities and rural areas is growing, as highly digitalised companies are reaping the benefits, especially in urban centres.

The green transition

The EU is striving for climate neutrality, which requires massive investment in green energy and infrastructure. By 2030, this could create over three million new jobs, primarily in construction and services.
On the downside, regions with carbon-intensive industries face job losses unless comprehensive retraining programmes and stimuli are implemented.

Regional analyses and employment forecasts

The OVERLAP project forecasts employment trends until 2035 for all NUTS 3 regions in Germany and the ESPON member states. It reveals significant regional differences and highlights how demographic changes, digital transformations, and the transition to a climate-neutral economy will affect labour markets. The analysis not only provides geographical insights, but also practical information on the challenges and opportunities in these regions.

The OVERLAP project shows that employment prospects in the EU's NUTS 3 regions vary greatly. By 2035, 81 per cent of the regions analysed are likely to experience a decline in the total population employed.

Eastern Europe: Regions in Romania, Bulgaria and the Baltic states are particularly affected, where employment could fall by up to 40 per cent or more. A lack of investment in education and infrastructure is exacerbating the situation.
Southern Europe: Negative trends also dominate here, especially in rural and remote areas. While central and northern Spain are more stable, rural regions of Italy and insular Greek regions are facing significant losses.
Central Europe: Metropolitan areas and industrial centres are generally faring better. Germany and Austria are often able to meet their labour needs, but rural regions are struggling.
Northern Europe: This region is experiencing positive developments overall. Sweden, Denmark and Norway in particular are benefiting from new training and innovation centres.

Recommended policy measures

Targeted policy measures are needed to address the current challenges. Vocational training and continuing education must focus on digital and green skills. Labour market programmes and improved social benefits should be designed to better integrate women, young people and older people. Investment in infrastructure and public services is needed to stem the exodus from less developed regions. Digital and green infrastructure must be expanded everywhere. EU funds should be strategically channelled into lifelong learning. Smart migration management can attract new workers and retain talent, while language courses, professional recognition and social security facilitate integration.