Gas balance: Too little is being saved

Gas balance: Interim results in March

Low savings efforts in households & industry

For the vbw – Association of the Bavarian Economy, we regularly examine the German gas supply. The current monitoring of the gas balance highlights the situation as of the beginning of February 2023.

The Prognos gas team looked at four consumption scenarios and the associated gas balance development up to the end of 2024. The background: the complete suspension of delivery of Russian gas volumes by pipeline to Germany since September 2022.

Germany’s current gas supply

Up until the end of January, the weather was warmer than in previous years and also slightly milder than in December 2022.
For the first time in a year, consumption was once again above the temperature-related reference value. Savings due to behavioural changes can therefore no longer be observed, neither in private households nor in industry and commerce.
At the end of January, the German gas storage facilities were still 79 percent full – about 30 percent above the previous year's level at that time.
Germany’s gas imports from Norway and LNG volumes from the world market via the Netherlands and Belgium are also at a high level. In 2022, almost 53 percent more LNG was imported into the EU than in 2021.

No all-clear for the gas balance

Overall, it is highly likely that a gas shortage situation can be prevented. However, risks remain for the saving efforts — the transport system (especially with regard to the sabotage of import pipelines), winter temperatures in 2023/2024, and the effect of political intervention.