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Gas balance: Interim status October

The gas gap is getting
smaller, but we’re not in
the clear


Project update



In the meantime, Russian natural gas is no longer being imported to Germany via pipelines. At the same time, efforts to tap into alternative sources of supply, substitution, and savings have continued intensively. These recent developments have been incorporated into this update of the gas balance, which produces monthly forecasts for vbw until the end of the year in order to draw an up-to-date picture.

Our gas team’s calculations show: Germany is now better prepared and the risk of significant undersupply has dropped significantly. Whether or not it is possible to avoid a bottleneck that would have severe consequences for the economy depends on how successful the savings efforts of businesses and households are during the winter months. However, it is not yet time to sit back – current natural gas prices in some industries mean that economic production is no longer possible, thus threatening an economic gas deficit. Specific measures must be taken to counter-act this.

The investigation, in German (

High gas prices place a significant burden on industry

In a further study, experts looked more closely at the effects on industry. Calculations show that, in many industries, high energy prices have rendered production economically non-viable without additional relief measures. In 8 of the 22 industries considered, the average return on sales has fallen below zero. This threatens an economic gas gap – with production stoppages, bankrupt-cies, or relocations, as possible consequences.

The planned gas price brake can effectively cushion the decline in yields in almost all industries. However, it will not be sufficient to prevent negative returns across all industries. The brick, glass, ceramics, and steel production sectors, which are particularly affected by high gas prices, will generate a negative return on sales, on average, even if the gas price brake is applied.

The conclusion – the proposed gas price brake is helpful, but for some industries it will not be sufficient to prevent an economic gas gap.

The investigation, in German (

More about our work on this project

Last update: 16.11.2022

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Jens Hobohm

Partner, Director

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Dr Michael Böhmer

Chief Economist, Head of Corporate Services

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Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

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