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Society & Social Systems



The social insurance model OCCUR allows the simulation of social policy reforms on the financial development of the individual branches of German social security (GRV, GKV, SPV).

Model core

The social insurance model OCCUR is a detailed model of German social security.

Application examples and projects

Effects of the statutory minimum wage on pension development

| Project

Does the statutory minimum wage have an influence on pension development and individual pension entitlements? Prognos investigated this on behalf of the Minimum Wage Commission.

Long-term care is changing

| Project

Prognos examined approaches to the further development of care professions and the prospects for the financing of the social long-term care insurance (SPV) up to the year 2050.

A reliable intergenerational contract?

| Project

The Federal Government’s planned pension package would lead to significant additional expendi-ture on pension insurance and to permanent increases in pension contribution rates. These are the results of our study conducted on behalf of the INSM.

More on this model

Model type

Social insurance model

Modelled dimensions

  • Social security branches
  • Income
  • Expenditure
  • Contribution rate
  • Age
  • Gender
  • Years

Region covered


Time frame

Until 2070


  • DRV Bund
  • BMG
  • BA
  • Federal Statistical Office


Feel free to contact us.

Dr Almut Kirchner

Partner, Director

+41 61 32 73 331

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