Economic assessment
of the development of
Bremerhaven’s
shipyard quarter

Our mission

The downturn in the fishing and the shipyard industries has strongly impacted Bremerhaven’s economy. However, the city plans to compensate for the decline in these economic sectors by setting itself up as a key location for science and tourism. The plans for the 140-hectare shipyard quarter surrounding the former Schichau Seebeckwerft clearly embody the city’s determination to transform. The district is to be reused and revitalised and this includes plans to build on previously inaccessible water locations. The urban planning framework envisages creating an attractive residential, working, scientific, cultural, and leisure location. The aim is to create a CO₂-neutral district that can provide a home for the creative industry and will thrive on mixed use and inclusion.

The redevelopment of the site requires high-level public investment. Prognos was commissioned by the BIS – Bremerhavener Gesellschaft für Investitionsförderung und Stadtentwicklung mbH to examine the urban development in terms of its medium- to long-term regional and fiscal benefits.

How we proceed

In the first step, an inventory of the status quo are conducted in coordination with the BIS. Central framework data and essential information are collected, reviewed, and evaluated. This includes, but is not limited to, information on local enterprises and population development, public and private investments made and planned, the expected costs of restructuring, and expected funding. The evaluation takes into consideration the policy objectives set. For additional research on third-party funding, Prognos can draw on experience from relevant reference projects.

In the second step, a regional economic calculation model is used to identify and evaluate significant developments and changes up to and beyond the year 2035. Based on urban planning, empirical values from comparative projects, and supplementary assumptions, various development scenarios are developed.

Finally, the regional economic effects of the transformation are determined using Prognos’ tried-and-tested model. These effects can be divided into direct, indirect, and income-induced effects.

Project team: Fabian Malik, Holger Bornemann, Renke Janshen, Jan Lukas Röbke