KfW development bank (KfW)
2022
NEXTRA Consulting and Institute for Sustainable Investments
In principle, it is possible to implement the long-term transformation of climate-relevant systems and processes necessary to achieve climate protection goals with technologies already known today. However, transformation requires significant rethinking and private and public investment – especially into climate-friendly technologies that permanently reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
On behalf of KfW, Prognos, together with NEXTRA Consulting and the Institute für Nachhaltiges Wirtschaften (the institute for sustainable investments), submitted a study in 2021 which, for the first time, quantified the total investment in climate protection and divided it into sectors and subjects.
On this basis, we have now calculated the public share of these necessary climate protection investments in another short study.
The previous study quantified the necessary investment in climate protection to achieve climate neutrality in Germany by 2050 (see Prognos et al. 2021). This was broken down into total and additional investments as well as by sectors of the energy balance sheet and subjects (among others, building efficiency, renewable energy plants, process technology, vehicles, and transport infrastructure). On the basis of this, the present study quantifies the (proportional) volume of public climate protection investments up to 2050 by sector and by subject (where possible and reasonable).
The breakdown is based on the institutional framework found in the respective sector/subject, as well as on the evaluation of statistics and other sources. Unless the allocation of the investor is directly clear, estimates are made based on appropriate analogies, such as in the housing sector by means of calculating the public share of the relevant capital stock as a whole.
Public investment requirements to achieve climate neutrality in Germany by 2045 can be estimated at just under 500 billion euros, equivalent to an average annual investment in climate protection of around 20 billion euros.
The largest government needs will be in the energy (297 billion), transport (137 billion), and building (47 billion) sectors. These amounts are fundable via public budgets, but at the same time this would represent a six-fold increase in the current level of investment. In order to increase the required climate protection investments in the long term, it is necessary to strictly adapt the responsibilities, financial flows, and competences between the federal, state, and local levels.
On the KfW website you will find:
Learn more (in German)
The short study (PDF, in German)
Project team: Jan Limbers
Latest Update: 22.07.2022
Senior Expert
Bavarian industry requires large quantities of raw materials. Our study shows how critical materials can be used efficiently and important savings potential identified.
The current global economic order is faltering. What does this mean for Germany and the EU? We have developed various scenarios for the future global economy for the vbw.
The EU Commission commissioned Prognos, Idea Consult and the nova-Institute to research and promote the transition to a bioeconomy in the European Union.
What impact do global crises have on regional labour markets? The 15th issue of TerritoriALL magazine reports on the OVERLAP project carried out by Prognos.
The Single Market Programme promotes the EU internal market in order to strengthen it, standardise it and make it more competitive. Prognos was involved in the mid-term evaluation of the programme.
Prognos is supporting the North Rhine-Westphalian Ministry of the Environment in organising, implementing and establishing the world's first trade exhibition for the climate adaptation industry.
The Public Sector Loan Facility is an EU financial instrument to ensure a socially just transition to climate neutrality in the regions. Prognos and t33 srl evaluated the instrument.
German industry is heavily dependent on raw materials and intermediate products from abroad, especially from China. Prognos analysed supply chains and developed recommendations for action.
How can innovations be implemented in practice? This is where the BMBF's ‘Innovative University’ funding initiative comes in. Prognos and Fraunhofer ISI are evaluating the programme.
On behalf of the BMWK, we evaluate the impact of the BEG in the funding period 2021 – 2025 together with ifeu, ITG, and FIW.
Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.