EU Commission, DG GROW
2022
KE-Consult, Sphera
Online commerce has grown strongly over the past ten years. Stationary trade has reacted to this trend and combined both distribution channels in an omnichannel approach. The boom in e-commerce has also had an impact on the transport system and thus on the environmental impact of the sector. The study aims to compare the environmental impacts of online commerce with those of stationary trade.
The EU Commission entrusted a consortium consisting of Prognos, Sphera, and KE-Consult, with the implementation of the study.
In a first step, we examined the transport chain of online and stationary retail commerce in order to identify the individual stages in the two supply chains. In the process, the transport routes from the manufacturer to the customers were considered. In a second step, we developed a modelling tool to calculate the environmental impact (CO2 emissions and air pollution) of each transport stage. In the third step, this modelling tool was finally used to calculate the environmental impact using real-life case studies.
Two transport stages have a strong influence on CO2 emissions and air pollution: Global long-distance transport to the first parcel hub in the EU and transport from the parcel centre to customers (the “last mile”).
There are a number of factors that affect emissions during transport. Amongst other things the study determined:
In addition, five measures were identified that can reduce the environmental impact of the retail transport chain:
To the executive summary of the study (EU Commission, PDF in English)
Project team: Sven Altenburg, Hans-Paul Kienzler
Last update: 17.11.2022
Principal, Head of Mobility & Transport
German industry is heavily dependent on raw materials and intermediate products from abroad, especially from China. Prognos analysed supply chains and developed recommendations for action.
How powerful is the green tech industry in Bavaria? What is its economic significance? We examined these questions on behalf of the vbw using our envigos model.
The German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy has been funding the e-bus market ramp-up since 2018. Together with our partners, we have been investigating how effective this funding has been.
The automotive industry is undergoing fundamental change. How does this effect employment? And what will it mean for the individual professions? We investigated this on behalf of the VDA.
Mobility in Germany is becoming increasingly sustainable. However, the transport sector is yet to achieve its national and international climate targets. The ADAC Mobility Index looks at the reasons why.
Prognos evaluates the "Model Projects Smart Cities" (MPSC) funding programme as part of the Coordination and Transfer Office under the direction of the DLR Project Management Agency.
We examined an economic challenge of transformation for the mobility region.
Which carbon accounting requirements will businesses have to be aware of in the future and what, specifically, will present the greatest challenge?
What level of investment will be required to ensure a climate-neutral transport sector by 2045? We calculated this on behalf of Agora Verkehrswende, based on three scenarios.
Digitalisation, decarbonisation, electrification: The German automotive industry faces major challenges. Prognos led the accompanying research to the carbon assessment of the auto industry value chain, on behalf of the BMWK.
Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.