all projects

The Swiss-European economic success story in danger

Client

vbw – Bavarian Industry Association e. V.

Year

2022


The assignment

The bilateral agreements that laid the foundations for close economic cooperation between Switzerland and the Germany were signed around the turn of the millennium might not be continued. In 2021 Switzerland broke off negotiations for a framework agreement designed to comprehensively govern its relations with the EU.

This study examines the institutional and economic ties between Switzerland and the EU and quantifies the potential economic consequences should the framework agreement fail.

Our approach

First, the study examines the complex structure of Switzerland's institutional relations with the EU. We then assess the economic relationships and analyse to what extent they are profitable for both sides.

The next step is to compare the status quo with alternative scenarios in which no or limited agreement is reached: For example, we consider a “relapse” to the standardised rules of the World Trade Organization or the agreement on a Brexit-like deal.

The results highlight the threat of economic damage associated with the continuation of the political conflict between the Swiss government and the EU.

Core results

At present Switzerland has over 120 bilateral agreements with the EU. Foreign trade relations between them are particularly close. For example, European demand within Switzerland generates almost 93 billion euros of gross value added and, secures the employment of 549,000 people.

From a Swiss point of view, Germany is the largest trading partner: 45 billion euros of gross value added (7 percent of total Swiss gross value added) and 268,000 employees can be traced back to German demand.

Similarly, for Germany Switzerland is also an important trading partner. In Germany, 33 billion euros of gross value added and the employment of 440,000 people depend on foreign trade with Switzerland.

This gross value added and employment, as well as investment and research cooperation, are at risk in the absence of an agreement between the EU and Switzerland. Although Germany would be less affected than Switzerland by this loss, it is nevertheless in the interest of both parties to find a solution to the current stalemate.

Links and downloads

The following documents and information can be found on the vbw website:

Study (PDF, German)

More information at vbw

Project team: Jakob Ambros, Dr Michael Böhmer, Philipp Kreuzer, Mathis Vornholt, Johann Weiß, Eva Willer

 

Stand: 27 June 2022

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Dr Michael Böhmer

Chief Economist, Head of Corporate Services

View profile

Mehr Studien & Projekte zu diesem Thema

More studies & projects on this topic

Five challenges: How Europe remains competitive in the future

2024
| Expertise

What needs to happen for Europe to survive in global competition? We analysed this at the “12 Minutes Europe – Meeting Global Challenges” event organised by the Austrian Federal Economic Chamber.

Harnessing Talent Platform: Technical support in progress

2024
| Project update

The Harnessing Talent Platform supports selected regions within the EU that are particularly affected by demographic change and the brain drain. The technical support that Prognos is providing in some regions has now been launched with kick-off meetings.

KreativLand Baden-Württemberg

2024
| Project

Creatives in the countryside? As scientific partner in the model project KreativLand Baden-Württemberg, Prognos examined the status quo, the opportunities and the challenges facing creatives living and working outside of the urban centres and regions.

Evaluation of the Bildungsketten Initiative

ongoing
| Project

The Bildungsketten Initiative’s goal is to support coordinated action by the Federal and State governments at the most important interfaces of the educational process. Prognos evaluates the initiative on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research.

Support for the Just Transition Platform

2024
| Project

Through the Just Transition Platform (JTP), the EU supports the member states and regions in achieving their climate targets in a fair manner. Prognos provided the JTP with in-depth analyses and knowledge management.

The invisible value of care work

2024
| Expertise

72 billion hours: That is how many unpaid care work hours are performed in Germany, annually, by women. In a new paper, we show the value of unpaid care work and how unevenly it is dis-tributed between men and women.

Innovation Index Germany 2023

2024
| Project

Once again, Prognos has compiled the Innovation Index Germany on behalf of the Vodafone Institute for Society and Communications. The index quantifies the impact the expansion of Germany’s digital infrastructure has had on its innovation strength.

Status Report on the German Recycling Economy 2024

2024
| Project

The 2024 Status Report gives a comprehensive picture of the whole Recycling Economy sector and its future challenges.

Regional purchasing power of pensions

2023
| Project

Where in Germany is retirement particularly cheap and where has it become more expensive than average? Prognos examined this for the German Insurance Industry Association.

Indicators of equal living conditions

ongoing
| Project

The establishment of equal living conditions in Germany is one of the goals being prioritised by the Federal Government. But how can the equivalence of living conditions be measured? Prognos develops a set of indicators.

About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

Learn more