vbw – Bavarian Industry Association e. V.
2022
The bilateral agreements that laid the foundations for close economic cooperation between Switzerland and the Germany were signed around the turn of the millennium might not be continued. In 2021 Switzerland broke off negotiations for a framework agreement designed to comprehensively govern its relations with the EU.
This study examines the institutional and economic ties between Switzerland and the EU and quantifies the potential economic consequences should the framework agreement fail.
First, the study examines the complex structure of Switzerland's institutional relations with the EU. We then assess the economic relationships and analyse to what extent they are profitable for both sides.
The next step is to compare the status quo with alternative scenarios in which no or limited agreement is reached: For example, we consider a “relapse” to the standardised rules of the World Trade Organization or the agreement on a Brexit-like deal.
The results highlight the threat of economic damage associated with the continuation of the political conflict between the Swiss government and the EU.
At present Switzerland has over 120 bilateral agreements with the EU. Foreign trade relations between them are particularly close. For example, European demand within Switzerland generates almost 93 billion euros of gross value added and, secures the employment of 549,000 people.
From a Swiss point of view, Germany is the largest trading partner: 45 billion euros of gross value added (7 percent of total Swiss gross value added) and 268,000 employees can be traced back to German demand.
Similarly, for Germany Switzerland is also an important trading partner. In Germany, 33 billion euros of gross value added and the employment of 440,000 people depend on foreign trade with Switzerland.
This gross value added and employment, as well as investment and research cooperation, are at risk in the absence of an agreement between the EU and Switzerland. Although Germany would be less affected than Switzerland by this loss, it is nevertheless in the interest of both parties to find a solution to the current stalemate.
The following documents and information can be found on the vbw website:
Study (PDF, German) More information at vbw
Project team: Jakob Ambros, Dr Michael Böhmer, Philipp Kreuzer, Mathis Vornholt, Johann Weiß, Eva Willer
Stand: 27 June 2022
Partner, Head of Corporate Services
A race to catch up - this is what Europe needs if it is not to be left behind by the USA and China. In the SPIEGEL guest article, Christian Böllhoff calls for a new match plan with clear priorities for the new EU legislative period.
In uncertain times, there is a growing demand for orientation. PEO® delivers independent figures. Based on our wolrd economy model we project the developments until 2045.
Growth in the German economy benefits the whole of Europe. Our study for the vbw shows that this is due to the size of the economy and its strong foreign trade networks.
Employees want tailor-made reconciliation measures that ensure work-life balance and not to face professional disadvantage as a result of their care work. These were the findings of our study for the BMFSFJ.
Which companies are already using or developing artificial intelligence? Which companies would benefit from the use of AI? Prognos created an interactive dashboard for one federal state.
Prognos develops a tool for an industry association that enables member companies to carry out risk analyses to identify sustainability risks in countries and sectors.
We have produced guidelines for successful sustainability reporting in accordance with the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive for an industry association. The third guide deals with data management in accordance with the CSRD.
We have produced guidelines for successful sustainability reporting in accordance with the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive for an industry association. The second guide is dedicated to the topic of "Sustainability Governance".
The study for the European Commission examines the impact of digitalisation on the employment situation in the individual member states as well as on the EU economy as a whole.
In his guest article "Move Europe - it's urgent!" in WirtschaftsWoche, Christian Böllhoff calls for Europe to reposition itself geo-economically in order to strengthen its position between the economic giants USA and China.
Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.