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Disruption to gas supply – consequences for the brick industry

Client

Federal Association of the German Brick and Tile Industry

Year

2022


Our assignment

The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has led to uncertainties for the gas supply in Germany. Several studies have examined the possible effects of supply disruptions on the German economy. But how would this specifically affect the brick and tile industry? This question was examined for the Federal Association of the German Brick and Tile Industry (BVZi) by an interdisciplinary team consisting of our economists and gas experts.

Our approach

The first step was to analyse and estimate the extent to which production losses could occur in the brick and tile industry. Based on this, the resulting value-added effects were determined – both directly for the brick and tile industry and indirectly for the upstream industries. In a final step, a qualitative analysis was carried out in which, among other things, the importance of the brick and tile industry for the construction industry, and the possibilities for the substitution of bricks as a building material, were discussed and classified.

Within the framework of the study, three technical discussions were also held with representatives from BVZi member companies in order to compare the results of the study with the specific situation in the brick factories. In selected places, the results of the study are commented on and classified accordingly.

Core results

The results of the study show, firstly, that the brick industry is highly dependent on gas supplies. Secondly, it is clear that the construction industry would be severely affected by reduced brick production and/or further increases in the price of bricks. When planning and implementing political measures in connection with the supply of gas to German industry, it is therefore important to include downstream indirect effects in the considerations in order to keep the economic costs and negative social effects of an interruption to the gas supply as low as possible.

Links and Downloads

Study (PDF in German, ziegel.de)

More info, in German (ziegel.de)

Project team: Dr Michael Böhmer, Leilah Dismond, Jens Hobohm, Markus Hoch, Sebastian Lübbers, Dr Fabian Muralter

Last update: 06.10.2022

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Markus Hoch

Senior Project Manager

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Dr Michael Böhmer

Chief Economist, Head of Corporate Services

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Jens Hobohm

Partner, Director

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