Disruption to gas supply – consequences for the brick industry

Client

Federal Association of the German Brick and Tile Industry

Year

2022


Our assignment

The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has led to uncertainties for the gas supply in Germany. Several studies have examined the possible effects of supply disruptions on the German economy. But how would this specifically affect the brick and tile industry? This question was examined for the Federal Association of the German Brick and Tile Industry (BVZi) by an interdisciplinary team consisting of our economists and gas experts.

Our approach

The first step was to analyse and estimate the extent to which production losses could occur in the brick and tile industry. Based on this, the resulting value-added effects were determined – both directly for the brick and tile industry and indirectly for the upstream industries. In a final step, a qualitative analysis was carried out in which, among other things, the importance of the brick and tile industry for the construction industry, and the possibilities for the substitution of bricks as a building material, were discussed and classified.

Within the framework of the study, three technical discussions were also held with representatives from BVZi member companies in order to compare the results of the study with the specific situation in the brick factories. In selected places, the results of the study are commented on and classified accordingly.

Core results

The results of the study show, firstly, that the brick industry is highly dependent on gas supplies. Secondly, it is clear that the construction industry would be severely affected by reduced brick production and/or further increases in the price of bricks. When planning and implementing political measures in connection with the supply of gas to German industry, it is therefore important to include downstream indirect effects in the considerations in order to keep the economic costs and negative social effects of an interruption to the gas supply as low as possible.

Links and Downloads

Study (PDF in German, ziegel.de)

More info, in German (ziegel.de)

Project team: Dr Michael Böhmer, Leilah Dismond, Jens Hobohm, Markus Hoch, Sebastian Lübbers, Dr Fabian Muralter

Last update: 06.10.2022

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Markus Hoch

Senior Project Manager

View profile

Dr Michael Böhmer

Managing Partner | Chief Economist

View profile

Jens Hobohm

Partner, Director

View profile

More studies & projects on this topic

Monitoring and development of the German Circular Economy Strategy

ongoing
| Project

Prognos supports the German Federal Environment Agency in underpinning the National Circular Economy Strategy with concrete measures, priorities and a robust monitoring system.

Evaluation of the Federal Funding for Efficient Buildings (BEG)

ongoing
| Project

On behalf of the BMWE, we evaluate the impact of the BEG in the funding period 2021 – 2025 together with ifeu, ITG, and FIW.

Impact Assessment of the European Innovation Act

ongoing
| Project

Europe has a strong research capabilities, but too little market success. The European Innovation Act aims to change this, remove structural barriers and thereby significantly strengthen innovation in the EU. Prognos and its partners are assisting with its development.

GreenTech Atlas 2025

2025
| Project

On behalf of the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Prognos compiled the Green Tech Atlas 2025. The atlas provides a comprehensive overview of the cross-sectional environmental technology and resource efficiency industries.

Efficiency potential of innovations for the healthcare sector

2025
| Project

Medical technology, pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and digital health solutions can reduce costs in the healthcare system and thus contribute to the financial stabilisation of statutory health insurance. Our study for the BDI shows just how high the potential is.

Successful implementation of the Talent Booster Mechanism: Completion of Pillar 1

2025
| Project update

The Talent Booster Mechanism supports eleven EU regions that are suffering from a decline in the working-age population and a low proportion of university graduates. The first pillar has been successfully implemented.

Impact of demographic transition on regional labour markets

ongoing
| Project

A shrinking workforce, digitalisation and decarbonisation: Prognos examined the specific effects of global trends on regional labour markets.

OVERLAP: Project results

2025
| Project conclusion

The results of the OVERLAP project show that demographic changes, digital transformation and the need for a green transition are simultaneously affecting regions across the EU.

Competitiveness of European clean energy technologies

2025
| Project

In recent years, Europe has maintained its strong position in the global market for clean energy technologies, but faces growing competition. On behalf of the European Commission, we examined the competitiveness of these technologies.

Full-day care for primary school children: where the federal states currently stand

ongoing
| Project

Germany needs around 166,000 additional full-time places for primary school children by the summer. We are examining how this can be achieved for the Federal Ministry of Education.

About us

We combine economic research and strategy consulting for sustainable decisions in politics, business and society. Our robust data, precise analyses and scientifically based findings enable fact-based progress – financially independent, politically neutral. 

Learn more