all projects

Disruption to gas supply – consequences for the brick industry

Client

Federal Association of the German Brick and Tile Industry

Year

2022


Our assignment

The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has led to uncertainties for the gas supply in Germany. Several studies have examined the possible effects of supply disruptions on the German economy. But how would this specifically affect the brick and tile industry? This question was examined for the Federal Association of the German Brick and Tile Industry (BVZi) by an interdisciplinary team consisting of our economists and gas experts.

Our approach

The first step was to analyse and estimate the extent to which production losses could occur in the brick and tile industry. Based on this, the resulting value-added effects were determined – both directly for the brick and tile industry and indirectly for the upstream industries. In a final step, a qualitative analysis was carried out in which, among other things, the importance of the brick and tile industry for the construction industry, and the possibilities for the substitution of bricks as a building material, were discussed and classified.

Within the framework of the study, three technical discussions were also held with representatives from BVZi member companies in order to compare the results of the study with the specific situation in the brick factories. In selected places, the results of the study are commented on and classified accordingly.

Core results

The results of the study show, firstly, that the brick industry is highly dependent on gas supplies. Secondly, it is clear that the construction industry would be severely affected by reduced brick production and/or further increases in the price of bricks. When planning and implementing political measures in connection with the supply of gas to German industry, it is therefore important to include downstream indirect effects in the considerations in order to keep the economic costs and negative social effects of an interruption to the gas supply as low as possible.

Links and Downloads

Study (PDF in German, ziegel.de)

More info, in German (ziegel.de)

Project team: Dr Michael Böhmer, Leilah Dismond, Jens Hobohm, Markus Hoch, Sebastian Lübbers, Dr Fabian Muralter

Last update: 06.10.2022

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Markus Hoch

Senior Project Manager

View profile

Dr Michael Böhmer

Chief Economist, Head of Corporate Solutions

View profile

Jens Hobohm

Partner, Director

View profile

Mehr Studien & Projekte zu diesem Thema

More studies & projects on this topic

Accelerated climate protection does pay off

2023
| Project

If the expansion of renewable energy and the implementation of efficiency measures are ac-celerated, electricity prices will fall more quickly, and the GDP will grow faster. These were the findings of our short study for the INSM.

Ecological transformation and the labour market in Schleswig-Holstein

ongoing
| Project

How many specialists will Schleswig-Holstein need to implement its climate protection measures? What are the key professions necessary for successful implementation?

DG REGIO – Evaluation of the European Green Deal

ongoing
| Project

How effective has the EU cohesion policy been in driving green change in Europe? This and other questions are being investigated jointly with COWI, Milieu, and CSIL, on behalf of the European Commission (DG REGIO).

Germany’s business model 2023

2023
| Project

Why politicians and companies need to act consistently - and how they can do so. Joint study with BayernLB.

Inflation – extra burden and relief for family households

2022
| Project

Calculations on inflation-related additional private household expenditure and the work of the Federal Government's relief package.

The effects of Chinese subsidies on Germany

2022
| Project

Prognos examined the potential impact of Chinese subsidy practices on Germany in three core sectors of the German economy.

Resilient supply chains in the EU

2022
| Project

What are possible solutions when supply chains are disrupted due to external shocks? A survey conducted for the European Commission as part of the European Cluster Collaboration Platform provides answers.

Innovation Index Germany

2022
| Project

How does the expansion of the digital infrastructure affect regional innovation strength? The IID.2022 provides clarification.

The world negotiates on climate

2022
| News

On Sunday, the 27th UN Climate Change Conference (COP27) begins. Various media sources have picked up on Prognos’ studies and expertise.

Change through trade? But with oomph!

2022
| News

The Communist Party in China meets for the 20th time, shortly after, Chancellor Olaf Scholz travels to Beijing for his inaugural visit. What a fitting opportunity to shake up German foreign trade policy. An appeal by Christian Böllhoff.

About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

Learn more