own publication
2022
The German economy is strongly intertwined with the global economy. But instead of global interdependencies, regional trade blocks could determine world trade in the future. Our brief analysis shows what a deglobalised world economy means for the German economy.
Request brief analysis (PDF)
For some time now, the end of globalisation as we have known it has been looming. In the wake of the Russian war of aggression, there is a growing risk that the world economy will disintegrate into different regional trading blocs - with strong economic exchange within, but significantly fewer intensive relations between the regions. For Germany, which is strongly globally interconnected, such an end to globalisation would have far-reaching consequences. A new brief analysis shows how dependent Germany is on individual regions of the world in various economic categories. In order to establish dependencies, a team led by Prognos Chief Economist Michael Böhmer divided the world's regions into blocs based on geographical and geopolitical characteristics, as they could emerge in view of the Russian war of aggression on Ukraine. The results provide information on the economic consequences for Germany of the formation of a bloc and an end to the global economic interdependencies that have developed over decades. Among other things, foreign trade, the associated employment in Germany, the dependence on raw materials, but also the international research cooperations were examined. Receive the results of our brief analysis free of charge directly in your email inbox: Request brief analysis (PDF) The results of the brief analysis were first published in Handelsblatt on 6.5.2022.
A short conclusion was added to the analysis for download (PDF) on 9 May. To the Handelsblatt report (€, in german)
Managing Partner | Chief Economist
The EU Commission commissioned Prognos, Idea Consult and the nova-Institute to research and promote the transition to a bioeconomy in the European Union.
What impact do global crises have on regional labour markets? The 15th issue of TerritoriALL magazine reports on the OVERLAP project carried out by Prognos.
The Single Market Programme promotes the EU internal market in order to strengthen it, standardise it and make it more competitive. Prognos was involved in the mid-term evaluation of the programme.
Prognos is supporting the North Rhine-Westphalian Ministry of the Environment in organising, implementing and establishing the world's first trade exhibition for the climate adaptation industry.
The Public Sector Loan Facility is an EU financial instrument to ensure a socially just transition to climate neutrality in the regions. Prognos and t33 srl evaluated the instrument.
German industry is heavily dependent on raw materials and intermediate products from abroad, especially from China. Prognos analysed supply chains and developed recommendations for action.
How can innovations be implemented in practice? This is where the BMBF's ‘Innovative University’ funding initiative comes in. Prognos and Fraunhofer ISI are evaluating the programme.
On behalf of the BMWK, we evaluate the impact of the BEG in the funding period 2021 – 2025 together with ifeu, ITG, and FIW.
Specialists waste a lot of time on tiresome routine tasks. 3D planning tools or digital twins can help. Our analysis for the Fraunhofer IGD shows which professional groups benefit directly from their digital technologies.
Prognos has developed a tool for the Circular Cities and Regions Initiative (CCRI) that supports cities and regions in monitoring their circular economy activities.
Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.