Comparison of the "Big 5" climate neutrality scenarios
Transparency in the climate neutrality debate. A comparison of the "Big 5" climate neutrality scenarios.
Cluster Brennstoffzelle BW c/o e-mobil BW GmbH; Commercial Vehicle Cluster – Nutzfahrzeug GmbH; Cluster Nutzfahrzeuge Schwaben (CNS) e. V.; Clusternetzwerk Energie und Umwelt; Metropolregion Rhein-Neckar GmbH
Considering climate protection targets, hydrogen technologies are currently the focus of attention in the transport sector. The market potential in international markets is therefore of interest to the German automotive industry. On behalf of Cluster Fuel Cell BW, Commercial Vehicle Cluster – Commercial Vehicles GmbH, Cluster Nutzfahrzeuge Schwaben (CNS), and Cluster Network “Energy and Environment” of the Metropolitan Region Rhine-Neckar, Prognos comprehensively analysed the framework conditions in four core markets of the german automotive industry: China, France, Japan, and the USA. Other target markets such as Spain, South Korea, Brazil, and Russia were also covered.
The study is based on comprehensive secondary research (desk research) on the state of hydrogen technologies in ten target markets. For each target market, a standardised country profile was created with the most important key indicators. The profiles provide an overview of the structure and contents of the current national hydrogen strategy of the respective country. It also explains the current state funding opportunities for hydrogen vehicles.
In addition, detailed analyses were prepared individually for each country representing the four core markets mentioned above. For the sections "Activities of vehicle manufacturers and suppliers", the respective nationally relevant companies have been identified. The Prog-nos team researched the identified companies in the relevant trade press. In addition, their annual and sustainability reports were examined for activities in the field of hydrogen technologies. The findings obtained have been qualitatively prepared in the study and are supplemented by a systematic presentation in table form.
Furthermore, the study identified current and future hydrogen infrastructure and focused on licensing issues. Based on the results, the market potential in the core markets was estimated up to 2030.
The findings from the country profiles of the target countries, allowed summarisation of the identified international trends and national peculiarities and for conclusions to be drawn about the international market potential for mobility-oriented hydrogen technologies and fuel cells.
The analysis shows that hydrogen is now established as a global topic. However, international standards for hydrogen use in the transport sector are still lacking. The expansion of the hydrogen infrastructure required to implement the plans is also a major challenge. From 2025 onwards in particular, there is great potential for the German automotive industry.
The detailed study results are not publicly available.
Alexander Labinsky, Sven Kreidelmeyer, Tim Trachsel
Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.Learn more