classification for LNG
Wissenschaftsplattform Klimaschutz (WPKS)
The war of aggression against Ukraine embarked upon by Russia in February 2022, has given the German government cause to reassess Germany’s energy and security situation. A diversification of gas supply sources and greater independence from Russia will be required to ensure the security of the energy supply. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the USA and Qatar plays a crucial role in this.
Equally, in accordance with climate targets, the Federal Government is seeking to limit the use of fossil fuels. It then begs the question: How much LNG is enough?
Prognos conducted two studies for the German Federal Government's Climate Protection Science Platform (WPKS) to address this question.
Supply situation in Germany:
Worldwide supply situation:
Read the entire study (PDF in German)
In the first study “LNG demand for the German energy supply on the way to climate neutrality,” calculations on the German and European gas supply are conducted on the basis of historical gas flow data from ENTSOG. With the help of our gas balance tool, the historical development of gas flows is updated and extended into the future and the planned LNG import terminals in Germany are added. In addition, appropriate assumptions were made where changes were necessary due to expected events (e.g., gas supply from Norway is expected to decrease from 2030). This results in the future supply situation for Germany and Europe up to 2050. The gas supply is compared with the range of gas demand, which results from the climate neutrality scenarios (e.g., the Big Five). From this, the future supply situation in Germany and Europe can be deduced as well as whether more capacity will be available than is required.
The global LNG balance is derived from the demand of individual world regions and the projected expansion of LNG liquefaction capacities. In terms of demand, we have oriented ourselves to the IEA’s demand scenarios. The offer is based on the availability of LNG liquefaction capacities. To this end, the stock and expansion plans for LNG liquefaction capacities were collected. A comparison of the global demand for LNG and available liquefaction capacities shows when a sufficient global supply can be expected.
The second study, “Stranded assets and lock-ins through LNG Imports to Germany – classification of the situation” analyses possible lock-in effects that could arise from the construction of an LNG infrastructure, especially in Germany. For the individual parts of the supply chain (import terminal, liquefaction, as well as exploration and production), it was investigated whether certain aspects create or strengthen lock-in effects. In particular, the risk of stranded assets, contractual ties, and economies of scale have been identified as factors that favour a lock-in in LNG infrastructures. The studies on stranded assets are also based on the results of the first study that investigates the gas supply situation in Germany and Europe.
Further information on the WPKS website (in German)
Study LNG Requirements (PDF in German)
Study Lock-in Topic (PDF in German)
Project team: Ravi Srikandam, Sven Kreidelmeyer
Last update: 29.06.2023
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