Overall impact of climate change, mitigation and adaptation on the German economy

What may sound unsurprising has now been proven by figures: climate change weakens the German economy. Climate protection measures and climate adaptation, on the other hand, strengthen economic performance.

This is the conclusion of the report we prepared for the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection (BMWK) under the direction of the GWS. The study uses five scenarios to determine how climate change, climate protection and climate adaptation affect gross domestic product (GDP).

Impact of climate change on economic performance

The results of the study:

• The ongoing climate change is clearly having a negative impact on economic performance in Germany, and the damage is becoming increasingly severe.
• In the scenario without climate protection measures, GDP in 2045 is expected to be -0.8 per cent lower and around 300 billion euros lower than in the reference scenario.
• Adaptation measures can reduce the losses in GDP by 30 percent.
• Climate protection has an impact primarily through additional investment in equipment and buildings. This has a positive effect on GDP, which is 2.6 percent higher in 2030 and 1 percent higher in 2045 than in the reference scenario.
• The macroeconomic effects of climate protection are significantly higher than the effects of (additional) climate change and adaptation, particularly up to 2035, and these become increasingly greater towards the end of the period under review.

Comparison of scenarios: Macroeconomic expenditure on climate protection

• Politically planned climate protection investments (as of the beginning of 2020) – i.e. those that would not be made without the effort against climate change – amount to 80 to 90 billion euros.
• In the climate protection scenario, further climate protection investments of 70 billion euros annually are added until 2035 and 20 to 30 billion euros annually between 2035 and 2045.
• Expenditure on climate adaptation in Germany is currently estimated at 5 to 6 billion euros per year and will remain at this level.
• Taking into account ongoing climate change, an additional 2 billion euros per year are added, and 4 billion euros per year in the case of accelerated climate change.

Our approach

With this study, we have broken new ground: never before has the macroeconomic impact of climate change, climate protection and climate adaptation been examined.

To do this, we calculated five scenarios: a reference scenario without additional climate change, adaptation and climate protection, and three scenarios that consider the consequences of climate change, adaptation and climate change, and climate protection, first individually and then together in another scenario.

The report was prepared under the leadership of GWS. Prognos provided inputs for the GWS economic model. These focused in particular on investments resulting from activities in the areas of climate protection, climate adaptation and climate change. The results are now being incorporated into the short-term and medium-term economic forecasts of the BMWK.

Links and downloads

Go to study (PDF, in German)

More information on the BMWK website (in German)

Impact of the change in climate protection efforts, summary report 2024 (PDF, in German)

Project team: Dr Andreas Kemmler, Lukas Sander, Dr Jan Trenczek, Viktoria Leuschner, Josefine Droste, Jan Limbers, Dr Alexander Piégsa, Alex Auf der Maur, Inka Ziegenhagen

Last update: 28.03.2025