Efficiency potential of innovations for the healthcare sector

Client

The Federation of German Industries (BDI)

Year

2025


Medical technology, pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and digital health solutions can reduce costs in the healthcare system and thus contribute to the financial stabilisation of statutory health insurance. Our study for the Federation of German Industries (BDI) shows these innovations’ potential.

The German healthcare system is facing major financial challenges: demographic change, rising healthcare costs and economic uncertainties are putting pressure on the financing of public health insurance (GKV). What role does the industrial health economy, i.e. pharmaceuticals, medical technology, biotechnology and digital health solutions (e-health), play in this context?

On behalf of the BDI, we investigated how the industrial health economy can reduce costs and improve quality in the healthcare system through innovation. To this end, we analysed the efficiency potential in the sector and quantified its contribution to the sustainable financing of the GKV.

Annual savings potential to rise to 47 billion euros by 2045

The savings potential is spread across the areas of medical technology, e-health, pharmaceuticals and biotechnology. The greatest savings are to be found in medical technology and through more outpatient rather than inpatient services. E-health solutions such as telemedicine, registry systems and AI-supported diagnostics also promise significant efficiency gains. In the field of pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, innovative therapies, biosimilars and personalised medicine are reducing costs.

The potential savings considered, which relate directly to SHI benefit expenditure, currently amount to over 20.8 billion euros per year and will rise to 47 billion euros in 2045. The study models the potential in two scenarios:

  • The reference scenario assumes a continuation of the current framework conditions. In this scenario, statutory health insurance benefit expenditure will rise to 663 billion euros by 2045. This will result in an increase in the contribution rate from the current 17.1 percent to 20.1 percent.
  • The scenario “Priority for innovation and digitalisation” assumes that the identified efficiency potential will be gradually realised from 2026 onwards. In this scenario, SHI expenditure will only rise to 616 billion euros by 2045. This corresponds to a saving of 47 billion euros compared to the reference scenario and allows the contribution rate to be limited to 18.7 percent in 2045.

Healthcare innovations create economic and social benefits

In addition to the direct savings, the study highlights the economic effects of healthcare innovations.

  • One day of illness avoided corresponds to an additional gross value added of around 360 euros.
  • Avoiding one year of incapacity to work brings a total social benefit of around 98,500 euros per person.
  • Extrapolated, this results in indirect economic effects of 17.5 billion euros for 2023.
  • Including the direct efficiency potential for health insurance companies, this results in a total effect of around 40 billion euros.

These figures make it clear that investments in healthcare innovations make sense not only medically but also economically and make an important contribution to the future viability of the healthcare system.

Our approach

To analyse quantifiable efficiency potential, we systematically recorded and evaluated around 80 examples from research, practice and literature. Of these, 21 examples were classified as sufficiently quantifiable and used as the basis for the scenario calculation of the effects on statutory health insurance financing. The scenario calculation was performed using the Prognos social security model OCCUR.

Links and downloads

To the study (BDI website, in German)

Project team: Dr Oliver Ehrentraut, Markus Hoch, Paula Kostrzewa, Dr Stefan Moog, Hannah Staab, Hauke Toborg, Frederick Vierhub-Lorenz

Latest update: 22.01.2026

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Markus Hoch

Senior Project Manager

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Dr Oliver Ehrentraut

Partner, Director, Head of Economics Division

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