„If we can no longer rely on globalisation as we know it, where are the growth markets for German companies?“ Dr Michael Böhmer Globalisation has lost its momentum or even stagnated – not only since the corona pandemic. The German economy, which has done well from export business for decades, must therefore look for new business areas beyond the traditional large foreign markets. In a joint study with BayernLB, we show how companies can now set the right course in the face of falling exports. Request study now (in German) Um dieses YouTube-Video ansehen zu können, akzeptieren Sie bitte die Marketing Cookies. Opening up new export markets The development of second-option geographic markets such as the Philippines and Nigeria is particularly promising for the future. This poses challenges for companies and requires an individual analysis of which markets are particularly favourable for a particular company for its business model. The “made in Germany” label is a decisive factor for a successful market entry. These emerging markets from the second row offer long-term potential Annual growth rate of real gross domestic product by growth components 2018 to 2030, in % Source: Prognos View/VIEW+ Modell In the new markets, more easily constructed, robust products – for example, machines and equipment – are often more likely in demand, than those from the technologically demanding premium sector. Hybrid business models, combining traditional industrial approaches with digital technologies, are particularly promising in the development of innovative export products. Open platforms enable real-time analysis and storage of data from machines installed worldwide. Competitive factor sustainability Sustainability will become an increasingly important competitive factor in the future. On the basis of its technological know-how and its pioneering role within the EU, Germany can make even greater use of the global trend towards increased sustainability. If there is a political will to curb climate change, this will not be possible without substantial investment in environmental technology, which in turn opens up innovative business opportunities. Strong German position in the environmental technology growth segment Germany's share of world exports in individual segments of environmental technology in 2017, in % Source: Prognos Umweltwirtschaftsmodell envigos Greater consideration of domestic demand Numerous new business opportunities are also available in Germany. The companies that will succeed domestically will be those that understand early on how structural change processes change domestic demand and are able to develop a suitable product portfolio. These domestic business opportunities also extend to public investment. We expect higher levels of government investment into infrastructure in the future, for example, in transport or digital infrastructure. The planned corona measures to support the economy and transformation should significantly increase the level of public investment in the coming years. "Whether it be new geographic markets, new products, or a stronger focus on the internal market – what all these measures have in common is that they are based on the strengths of the German economy to date," sums up study author and Prognos chief economist Dr Michael Böhmer. Request study now (in German) Do you have questions? Your contact at Prognos Dr Michael Böhmer Managing Partner | Chief Economist View profile Our work on this topic Take a look at our latest projects and activities. Peer2Peer Festival of Communities 2. - 4. June 2025 | Event The Peer2Peer Festival of Communities focuses on exchange within peer2peer communities. 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Read more A greener economy through green finance 2024 | Project With green finance, greenhouse gases in Austria can be reduced by up to four per cent by 2040 – in the bond market alone. This is the result of our study commissioned by the Ministry for Climate Action. Read more Adobe Stock - CleverStock About us Prognos – Providing Orientation. Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound. Learn more