„If we can no longer rely on globalisation as we know it, where are the growth markets for German companies?“ Dr Michael Böhmer Globalisation has lost its momentum or even stagnated – not only since the corona pandemic. The German economy, which has done well from export business for decades, must therefore look for new business areas beyond the traditional large foreign markets. In a joint study with BayernLB, we show how companies can now set the right course in the face of falling exports. Request study now (in German) Um dieses YouTube-Video ansehen zu können, akzeptieren Sie bitte die Marketing Cookies. Opening up new export markets The development of second-option geographic markets such as the Philippines and Nigeria is particularly promising for the future. This poses challenges for companies and requires an individual analysis of which markets are particularly favourable for a particular company for its business model. The “made in Germany” label is a decisive factor for a successful market entry. These emerging markets from the second row offer long-term potential Annual growth rate of real gross domestic product by growth components 2018 to 2030, in % Source: Prognos View/VIEW+ Modell In the new markets, more easily constructed, robust products – for example, machines and equipment – are often more likely in demand, than those from the technologically demanding premium sector. Hybrid business models, combining traditional industrial approaches with digital technologies, are particularly promising in the development of innovative export products. Open platforms enable real-time analysis and storage of data from machines installed worldwide. Competitive factor sustainability Sustainability will become an increasingly important competitive factor in the future. On the basis of its technological know-how and its pioneering role within the EU, Germany can make even greater use of the global trend towards increased sustainability. If there is a political will to curb climate change, this will not be possible without substantial investment in environmental technology, which in turn opens up innovative business opportunities. Strong German position in the environmental technology growth segment Germany's share of world exports in individual segments of environmental technology in 2017, in % Source: Prognos Umweltwirtschaftsmodell envigos Greater consideration of domestic demand Numerous new business opportunities are also available in Germany. The companies that will succeed domestically will be those that understand early on how structural change processes change domestic demand and are able to develop a suitable product portfolio. These domestic business opportunities also extend to public investment. We expect higher levels of government investment into infrastructure in the future, for example, in transport or digital infrastructure. The planned corona measures to support the economy and transformation should significantly increase the level of public investment in the coming years. "Whether it be new geographic markets, new products, or a stronger focus on the internal market – what all these measures have in common is that they are based on the strengths of the German economy to date," sums up study author and Prognos chief economist Dr Michael Böhmer. Request study now (in German) Do you have questions? Your contact at Prognos Dr Michael Böhmer Managing Partner | Chief Economist View profile Our work on this topic Take a look at our latest projects and activities. Economic potential of the green tech sector in Bavaria 2024 | Project How powerful is the green tech industry in Bavaria? What is its economic significance? We examined these questions on behalf of the vbw using our envigos model. Read more Skilled workers for the energy transition 2024 | Project How many laborers and skilled workers will Germany need for the green transformation of its economy? We examined this question on behalf of the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce. Read more New procurement markets for the German economy – update 2024 2024 | Project German industry can increase the resilience of its supply chains by sourcing its intermediate products from different countries. We have analyzed these new procurement markets. Read more New markets for the export sector – 2024 update 2024 | Project Even if the global trade in goods is no longer growing, there are still promising markets for German business. We present 13 potential markets in Asia and Latin America. Read more Mid-term evaluation of the public sector loan facility ongoing | Project The Public Sector Loan Facility is an EU financing instrument to ensure a socially just transition to climate neutrality in the regions. Prognos and partners are evaluating the instrument. Read more Future governance of EU Cohesion Policy after 2027 2024 | Project With the involvement of relevant stakeholders, Prognos and partners developed conclusions for the further development of European structural funding after 2027. Read more Internationalisation of the environmental technology industry in Baden-Württemberg 2024 | Project The Baden-Württemberg Agency for Environmental Technology (UTBW) supports companies based in Baden-Württemberg in the internationalisation and export of environmental technology. Prognos provided the market information. Read more A greener economy through green finance 2024 | Project With green finance, greenhouse gases in Austria can be reduced by up to four per cent by 2040 – in the bond market alone. This is the result of our study commissioned by the Ministry for Climate Action. Read more Support for the Saxony-Anhalt Citizens' Advisory Board on Structural Change ongoing | Project Prognos supports the Citizens' Advisory Council in incorporating the perspectives of the population into decision-making processes and advises the responsible staff unit of the State Chancellery. Read more Resilience and sovereignty of German industry ongoing | Project German industry is dependent on raw materials and preliminary products from abroad. On behalf of the Netzwerk Zukunft der Industrie e. V., Prognos analyses the supply chains and provides recommendations for action. Read more Salon M 27. November 2024 | Event At Salon M, a dialogue and networking platform, Prognos CEO Christian Böllhoff will discuss the topic “The Impact of Global Players’ Communication on Shaping a New European Narrative“ with high-profile guests. Read more Moldova Trade Forum 2024 21. November 2024 | Event Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer will give the keynote speech on ‘Expanding export markets for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs)’ at the Moldova Trade Forum 2024. Read more North Rhine-Westphalia Green Economy Report 2024 2024 | Project The green economy is a driving force in North Rhine-Westphalia. Both gross value added and the number of people in employment are increasing at a faster rate than in other sectors of the economy. Read more Conversion of the automotive industry: How employment is changing 2024 | Project The automotive industry is undergoing fundamental change. How does this effect employment? And what will it mean for the individual professions? We investigated this on behalf of the VDA. Read more Green Tech Atlas 2025 ongoing | Project On behalf of the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Prognos compiled the Green Tech Atlas 2025. The atlas provides a comprehensive overview of the cross-sectional environmental tech-nology and resource efficiency industries. Read more C4T final forum 7. November 2024 | Event The Cohesion for Transitions (C4T) platform aims to support structurally weak regions on the path to climate neutrality. The forum will take stock of the programme: What has been achieved so far and where do we go from here? Read more The economic and social situation of the creative industries 2024 | Project On behalf of the Federal Ministry of Education, Science and Research and the Federal Government Commissioner for Culture and the Media, Prognos and partner analysed the economic and social situation of self-employed solo artists in creative professions. Read more Clusters meet Regions: Charleroi 27. - 28. November 2024 | Event As part of our work for the European Cluster Collaboration Platform, Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer presents an input paper on the on the Walloon Region and its clusters. Read more Impact of global crises on regional labour markets ongoing | Project A shrinking workforce, digitalisation and decarbonisation: Prognos examines the specific effects of global trends on regional labour markets. Read more NetworkNature Annual Conference 2024 25. September 2024 | Event Greta Dekker will be attending the NetworkNature annual conference and talking to the specialist audience about nature-based solutions. Read more Evaluation of the ERDF programmes of several federal states ongoing | Project How effectively do the federal states utilise ERDF funding? Prognos supports various federal states with the evaluation of their ERDF programmes. Read more Presentation of the study on the economic and social situation in the cultural and creative industries 15. October 2024 | Event The results of our study on the economic and social situation of solo self-employed and hybrid workers in the cultural and creative industries (CCIs) will be presented at the event. Read more Evaluation of ERDF funding for SMEs ongoing | Project How effective is EU support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)? On behalf of the European Commission, Prognos evaluates together with CSIL the ERDF funding in the period from 2014 to 2020. Read more Industry Conference 2024 26. November 2024 | Event Together with the Alliance for the Future of Industry, the BMWK is organising the Industry Conference 2024, where Michael Astor will present initial interim findings from our study on the resilience and sovereignty of German industry. Read more Germany Potential Index: Digitalisation to counter the skilled-worker shortage 2024 | Project The skilled-worker shortage is only due to get worse in the future. Our Potential Index shows: Increased digitalisation can help to cushion the negative consequences of the skilled-worker shortage in Germany. Read more Guest article in SPIEGEL: How Europe's economy can catch up with the USA and China 2024 | Expertise A race to catch up - this is what Europe needs if it is not to be left behind by the USA and China. In the SPIEGEL guest article, Christian Böllhoff calls for a new match plan with clear priorities for the new EU legislative period. Read more Prognos Economic Outlook® (PEO®) ongoing | Project In uncertain times, there is a growing demand for orientation. PEO® delivers independent figures. Based on our wolrd economy model we project the developments until 2045. Read more Evaluation of the Central Innovation Programme for SMEs (ZIM) 2024 | Project The Central Innovation Programme for SMEs (ZIM) strengthens the innovative power of small and medium-sized enterprises. This is shown by our evaluation for the BMWK. Read more Employers’ attractiveness according to parents and carers 2024 | Project Employees want tailor-made reconciliation measures that ensure work-life balance and not to face professional disadvantage as a result of their care work. These were the findings of our study for the BMFSFJ. Read more Significance of the German economy for Europe 2024 | Project Growth in the German economy benefits the whole of Europe. Our study for the vbw shows that this is due to the size of the economy and its strong foreign trade networks. Read more AI players in the federal state 2024 | Project Which companies are already using or developing artificial intelligence? Which companies would benefit from the use of AI? Prognos created an interactive dashboard for one federal state. Read more Guidelines: With Sustainable Governance to successful sustainability reporting 2024 | Project We have produced guidelines for successful sustainability reporting in accordance with the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive for an industry association. The second guide is dedicated to the topic of "Sustainability Governance". Read more Guideline: Data management for successful sustainability reporting 2024 | Project We have produced guidelines for successful sustainability reporting in accordance with the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive for an industry association. The third guide deals with data management in accordance with the CSRD. Read more Web tool: Risk analysis for sustainable supply chains 2024 | Project Prognos develops a tool for an industry association that enables member companies to carry out risk analyses to identify sustainability risks in countries and sectors. Read more Regulatory requirements for carbon accounting 2024 | Project Which carbon accounting requirements will businesses have to be aware of in the future and what, specifically, will present the greatest challenge? Read more Study on Poverty and income inequality in the context of the digital transformation 2024 | Project The study for the European Commission examines the impact of digitalisation on the employment situation in the individual member states as well as on the EU economy as a whole. Read more Germany: Industry sectors put to the test 2024 | Expertise Mechanical engineering, the automotive industry, pharmaceuticals: In which sectors is Germany still a leader? On behalf of the Handelsblatt, we examined how successfully Germany is holding its own against its international competitors. Read more 2nd Cohesion for Transitions Conference & Meetings 4. - 5. June 2024 | Event Our colleagues are travelling to the conference as part of their work for the Cohesion for Transitions (C4T) platform and are chairing both a meeting of the science network and a working group. Read more Developing the Rhein-Kreis Neuss economic development strategy 2024 | Project Rhein-Kreis Neuss is focusing on more innovative economic development to strengthen its business location. Prognos was instrumental in the development of the new strategy. Read more Development of a group-wide raw materials strategy 2024 | Project Our retail industry client commissioned us to develop a group-wide raw materials concept. We assisted the company from conception stage right through to the launch of the interactive web tool. Read more Decarbonisation of the automotive industry 2024 | Project Digitalisation, decarbonisation, electrification: The German automotive industry faces major challenges. Prognos led the accompanying research to the carbon assessment of the auto industry value chain, on behalf of the BMWK. Read more Hybrid seminar on cohesion policy support for RTDI 23. April 2024 | Event Prognos and its partners are organising a hybrid seminar on the evaluation of cohesion policy support for research, technological development and innovation (RTDI). Read more Future-proof strategies for Europe 2024 | Project Germany and Europe are trying to find their place in the New World Order. Prognos examined four foreign trade strategies for the vbw. Read more Economic impact analysis for selected SDGs 2024 | Project A foundation group commissioned us to use KPIs to visualise the impact of its activities within identified focus SDGs. Read more Supervision of sustainability reporting in accordance with the CSRD ongoing | Project We offered guidance to a group from the publishing industry setting up sustainability reporting that complies with the Corporate Social Reporting Directive (CSRD). Read more Five challenges: How Europe remains competitive in the future 2024 | Expertise What needs to happen for Europe to survive in global competition? We analysed this at the “12 Minutes Europe – Meeting Global Challenges” event organised by the Austrian Federal Economic Chamber. Read more Guidance for CSRD-compliant materiality analysis 2023 | Project An industry association commissioned us to create a guide to successfully implement the materiality analysis for its member companies in accordance with the new European CSRD directive. Read more CO2 amortisation of photovoltaic modules and storage 2023 | Project The product range of an energy company was analysed in terms of various sustainability criteria, in particular climate impact, and its CO2 amortisation calculated. Read more Harnessing Talent Platform: Technical support in progress 2024 | Project update The Harnessing Talent Platform supports selected regions within the EU that are particularly affected by demographic change and the brain drain. The technical support that Prognos is providing in some regions has now been launched with kick-off meetings. Read more European Cluster Conference 2024 7. - 8. May 2024 | Event The European Cluster Conference 2024 brings the key players in the European cluster economy together in one place. The Prognos team around Head of EU-Services Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer is providing input both as part of our work for the European Cluster Collaboration Platform and for the NRW.innovativ competence centre. Read more Adobe Stock - CleverStock About us Prognos – Providing Orientation. Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound. Learn more