„If we can no longer rely on globalisation as we know it, where are the growth markets for German companies?“ Dr Michael Böhmer Globalisation has lost its momentum or even stagnated – not only since the corona pandemic. The German economy, which has done well from export business for decades, must therefore look for new business areas beyond the traditional large foreign markets. In a joint study with BayernLB, we show how companies can now set the right course in the face of falling exports. Request study now (in German) Um dieses YouTube-Video ansehen zu können, akzeptieren Sie bitte die Marketing Cookies. Opening up new export markets The development of second-option geographic markets such as the Philippines and Nigeria is particularly promising for the future. This poses challenges for companies and requires an individual analysis of which markets are particularly favourable for a particular company for its business model. The “made in Germany” label is a decisive factor for a successful market entry. These emerging markets from the second row offer long-term potential Annual growth rate of real gross domestic product by growth components 2018 to 2030, in % Source: Prognos View/VIEW+ Modell In the new markets, more easily constructed, robust products – for example, machines and equipment – are often more likely in demand, than those from the technologically demanding premium sector. Hybrid business models, combining traditional industrial approaches with digital technologies, are particularly promising in the development of innovative export products. Open platforms enable real-time analysis and storage of data from machines installed worldwide. Competitive factor sustainability Sustainability will become an increasingly important competitive factor in the future. On the basis of its technological know-how and its pioneering role within the EU, Germany can make even greater use of the global trend towards increased sustainability. If there is a political will to curb climate change, this will not be possible without substantial investment in environmental technology, which in turn opens up innovative business opportunities. Strong German position in the environmental technology growth segment Germany's share of world exports in individual segments of environmental technology in 2017, in % Source: Prognos Umweltwirtschaftsmodell envigos Greater consideration of domestic demand Numerous new business opportunities are also available in Germany. The companies that will succeed domestically will be those that understand early on how structural change processes change domestic demand and are able to develop a suitable product portfolio. These domestic business opportunities also extend to public investment. We expect higher levels of government investment into infrastructure in the future, for example, in transport or digital infrastructure. The planned corona measures to support the economy and transformation should significantly increase the level of public investment in the coming years. "Whether it be new geographic markets, new products, or a stronger focus on the internal market – what all these measures have in common is that they are based on the strengths of the German economy to date," sums up study author and Prognos chief economist Dr Michael Böhmer. Request study now (in German) Do you have questions? Your contact at Prognos Dr Michael Böhmer Managing Partner | Chief Economist View profile Our work on this topic Take a look at our latest projects and activities. EU Industry Days 2025 5. - 6. June 2025 | Event Felix Ginzinger will be representing Prognos at a stand for the European Cluster Collaboration Platform (ECCP) at the EU Industry Days in Poland. Prognos is part of the ECCP and has been supporting the platform for many years. Read more C4T Conference: Driving Sustainability through Cohesion Policy 24. - 25. June 2025 | Event Prognos chairs the meeting of the Academic Sounding Board and the working group on climate adaptation. The aim is to further refine proposed measures on the path to a climate-neutral Europe. Read more Clusters meet Regions: Rzeszów 3. - 4. June 2025 | Event The Podkarpackie region has positioned itself as one of the leading locations for aerospace and advanced manufacturing. Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer presents an input paper. Read more Clusters meet Regions: Foligno 24. - 25. June 2025 | Event Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer presents an input paper: Clusters as drivers of green and digital transformation in regional innovation ecosystems. Read more Clusters meet Regions: Cluj-Napoca 1. - 2. July 2025 | Event At the Clusters meet Regions event in Romania, Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer will present an input paper on the cluster landscape in the region. Read more The future of theglobal economic order 2025 | Project The current global economic order is faltering. What does this mean for Germany and the EU? We have developed various scenarios for the future global economy for the vbw. Read more European Union: From the fossil fuel economy to the bioeconomy ongoing | Project The EU Commission commissioned Prognos, Idea Consult and the nova-Institute to research and promote the transition to a bioeconomy in the European Union. Read more Prognos article in the European magazine TerritoriALL 2025 | Project update What impact do global crises have on regional labour markets? The 15th issue of TerritoriALL magazine reports on the OVERLAP project carried out by Prognos. Read more Mid-term evaluation of the Single Market Programme (SMP) 2025 | Project The Single Market Programme promotes the EU internal market in order to strengthen it, standardise it and make it more competitive. Prognos was involved in the mid-term evaluation of the programme. Read more Design and implementation of the Resilience Expo ongoing | Project Prognos is supporting the North Rhine-Westphalian Ministry of the Environment in organising, implementing and establishing the world's first trade exhibition for the climate adaptation industry. Read more Mid-term evaluation of the public sector loan facility 2025 | Project The Public Sector Loan Facility is an EU financial instrument to ensure a socially just transition to climate neutrality in the regions. Prognos and t33 srl evaluated the instrument. Read more German industry’s resilience and sovereignty 2025 | Project German industry is heavily dependent on raw materials and intermediate products from abroad, especially from China. Prognos analysed supply chains and developed recommendations for action. Read more Evaluation of the ‘Innovative University’ funding initiative ongoing | Project How can innovations be implemented in practice? This is where the BMBF's ‘Innovative University’ funding initiative comes in. Prognos and Fraunhofer ISI are evaluating the programme. Read more Evaluation of the Federal Funding for Efficient Buildings (BEG) ongoing | Project On behalf of the BMWK, we evaluate the impact of the BEG in the funding period 2021 – 2025 together with ifeu, ITG, and FIW. Read more Conference on Industrial Resilience 10. April 2025 | Event Michael Astor presents the results of the study on the resilience and sovereignty of the German industry, which we conducted on behalf of the Netzwerk Zukunft der Industrie e. V. (Future of Industry Network). The results will then be discussed by industry representatives. Read more Technologies to combat the shortage of skilled workers 2025 | Expertise Specialists waste a lot of time on tiresome routine tasks. 3D planning tools or digital twins can help. Our analysis for the Fraunhofer IGD shows which professional groups benefit directly from their digital technologies. Read more Clusters meet Regions: Palma 14. - 15. May 2025 | Event The event examines how clusters are accelerating the transition to sustainable economic models. It shows how Palma and the Balearic Islands can act as key players for innovation in the circular economy. Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer will present an input paper. Read more Cluster Collaboration Lab (C2Lab) in Spain 19. - 20. March 2025 | Event The next edition of the Cluster Collaboration Lab (C2Lab) will take place in Zaragoza, Spain. As part of our work in the European Cluster Collaboration Platform (ECCP), we are preparing an input paper, which Paul Möhlmann will present on site. Read more Talent Booster Mechanism In Action 18. March 2025 | Event With the ‘Harnessing Talent Platform’, the EU is supporting regions that are most affected by demographic change. The event will present what has been achieved so far and where the regions stand. Prognos is part of the platform and provides support primarily in the area of knowledge generation. Read more Forum on the Future of Cohesion Policy 20. March 2025 | Event At the invitation of the Bertelsmann Stiftung, Dr. Jan-Philipp Kramer will participate in an expert forum with representatives from EU institutions, regions, and academia to discuss the future of cohesion policy. Read more Expert roundtable on the European Investment Bank (EIB) support to Cohesion Policy 24. March 2025 | Event Dr. Jan-Philipp Kramer will participate in the Expert Roundtable with selected representatives from EU institutions and networks to discuss priorities for cohesion policy post-2027 and the optimization of EIB support. Read more Clusters meet Regions: Eindhoven 26. March 2025 | Event Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer will present an input paper on the Brabant cluster landscape at the Clusters meet Regions event. The South Netherlands region is one of the leading innovation centres in Europe. Read more Clusters meet Regions: Heilbronn 9. April 2025 | Event The region around Heilbronn is a leading location in the fields of automotive, mechanical engineering, artificial intelligence and hydrogen innovation. Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer will present an input paper on the Heilbronn cluster landscape at the event. Read more A more centralised and sectoral post-27 cohesion policy? 17. March 2025 | Event Will a more centralised and sectoral approach reshape the EU's regional development? Prognos and EURADA invite you to discuss this with experts on regional development and cohesion policy. Read more Circular Valley Convention 13. March 2025 | Event Marieke Eckhardt and Tim Bichlmeier will host a stage slot as part of the Green Economy Network.NRW (KNUW) on how innovative recycling solutions from NRW can ensure the sustainable supply of critical raw materials. Read more How far are the regions on the road to a circular economy? 2025 | Project update Prognos has developed a tool for the Circular Cities and Regions Initiative (CCRI) that supports cities and regions in monitoring their circular economy activities. Read more Cohesion Policy beyond 2027 13. February 2025 | Event Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer will discuss the results of our study on the future governance of European cohesion policy with representatives from politics, science and practice. Prognos is a co-organiser. Read more How dependent are we really on the US and China? 2025 | Expertise Foreign trade, employment, investment and raw materials: ahead of the new US administration taking office, we analysed for the Süddeutsche Zeitung how dependent our economy is on the US and China. Read more Economic potential of the green tech sector in Bavaria 2024 | Project How powerful is the green tech industry in Bavaria? What is its economic significance? We examined these questions on behalf of the vbw using our envigos model. Read more New markets for the export sector – 2024 update 2024 | Project Even if the global trade in goods is no longer growing, there are still promising markets for German business. We present 13 potential markets in Asia and Latin America. Read more Skilled workers for the energy transition 2024 | Project How many laborers and skilled workers will Germany need for the green transformation of its economy? We examined this question on behalf of the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce. Read more New procurement markets for the German economy – update 2024 2024 | Project German industry can increase the resilience of its supply chains by sourcing its intermediate products from different countries. We have analyzed these new procurement markets. Read more Future governance of EU Cohesion Policy after 2027 2024 | Project With the involvement of relevant stakeholders, Prognos and partners developed conclusions for the further development of European structural funding after 2027. Read more Internationalisation of the environmental technology industry in Baden-Württemberg 2024 | Project The Baden-Württemberg Agency for Environmental Technology (UTBW) supports companies based in Baden-Württemberg in the internationalisation and export of environmental technology. Prognos provided the market information. Read more Support for the Saxony-Anhalt Citizens’ Advisory Board on Structural Change ongoing | Project Prognos supports the citizens’ advisory council in incorporating the perspectives of the population into decision-making processes and advises the responsible staff unit of the State Chancellery. Read more A greener economy through green finance 2024 | Project With green finance, greenhouse gases in Austria can be reduced by up to four per cent by 2040 – in the bond market alone. This is the result of our study commissioned by the Ministry for Climate Action. Read more Salon M 27. November 2024 | Event At Salon M, a dialogue and networking platform, Prognos CEO Christian Böllhoff will discuss the topic “The Impact of Global Players’ Communication on Shaping a New European Narrative“ with high-profile guests. Read more Moldova Trade Forum 2024 21. November 2024 | Event Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer will give the keynote speech on ‘Expanding export markets for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs)’ at the Moldova Trade Forum 2024. Read more North Rhine-Westphalia Green Economy Report 2024 2024 | Project The green economy is a driving force in North Rhine-Westphalia. Both gross value added and the number of people in employment are increasing at a faster rate than in other sectors of the economy. Read more Conversion of the automotive industry: How employment is changing 2024 | Project The automotive industry is undergoing fundamental change. How does this effect employment? And what will it mean for the individual professions? We investigated this on behalf of the VDA. Read more Green Tech Atlas 2025 ongoing | Project On behalf of the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Prognos compiled the Green Tech Atlas 2025. The atlas provides a comprehensive overview of the cross-sectional environmental tech-nology and resource efficiency industries. Read more C4T final forum 7. November 2024 | Event The Cohesion for Transitions (C4T) platform aims to support structurally weak regions on the path to climate neutrality. The forum will take stock of the programme: What has been achieved so far and where do we go from here? Read more The economic and social situation of the creative industries 2024 | Project On behalf of the Federal Ministry of Education, Science and Research and the Federal Government Commissioner for Culture and the Media, Prognos and partner analysed the economic and social situation of self-employed solo artists in creative professions. Read more Clusters meet Regions: Charleroi 27. - 28. November 2024 | Event As part of our work for the European Cluster Collaboration Platform, Dr Jan-Philipp Kramer presents an input paper on the on the Walloon Region and its clusters. Read more Impact of global crises on regional labour markets ongoing | Project A shrinking workforce, digitalisation and decarbonisation: Prognos examines the specific effects of global trends on regional labour markets. Read more NetworkNature Annual Conference 2024 25. September 2024 | Event Greta Dekker will be attending the NetworkNature annual conference and talking to the specialist audience about nature-based solutions. Read more Evaluation of the ERDF programmes of several federal states ongoing | Project How effectively do the federal states utilise ERDF funding? Prognos supports various federal states with the evaluation of their ERDF programmes. Read more Presentation of the study on the economic and social situation in the cultural and creative industries 15. October 2024 | Event The results of our study on the economic and social situation of solo self-employed and hybrid workers in the cultural and creative industries (CCIs) will be presented at the event. Read more Evaluation of ERDF funding for SMEs 2024 | Project How effective is EU support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)? On behalf of the European Commission, Prognos evaluated together with CSIL the ERDF funding in the period from 2014 to 2020. Read more Industry Conference 2024 26. November 2024 | Event Together with the Alliance for the Future of Industry, the BMWK is organising the Industry Conference 2024, where Michael Astor will present initial interim findings from our study on the resilience and sovereignty of German industry. Read more Adobe Stock - CleverStock About us Prognos – Providing Orientation. Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound. Learn more