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Housing requirements analysis

Housing requirements in the Northern Black Forest region


Northern Black Forest region



The North Black Forest region is developing dynamically between the regions of Stuttgart and the Central Upper Rhine and is characterised by significant intra-regional development differences. This is one of the reasons why in October 2017 the committees of the North Black Forest Regional Association took the decision to update their overall regional plan. The regional plan provides the framework for the preparatory land-use planning of cities and municipalities in the Northern Black Forest region.

One important topic is the future development of residential construction. On behalf of the Northern Black Forest region, Prognos examined what the future housing requirements will be for the region and its seven central areas by the year 2040. The study authors focussed on answering the following questions:

  • How is the population likely to develop?
  • How many persons on average will make up a household in the future?
  • What can be concluded from this about housing requirements?
  • What types of housing will be increasingly in demand in the future?
  • Where will action requirements arise and what will they be?

Planning and orientation basis for residential development

With the help of different scenarios, a quantitative estimation of future housing demand was determined up to the year 2040. The scenarios are based on future population and household developments. In the context of changing migration movements to Germany and Baden-Württemberg as well as the relocation and spillover effects from the overstretched housing markets of Stuttgart and Karlsruhe, the Northern Black Forest region must prepare for a medium- to long-term increase in housing demand by 2035. According to the main variant of household forecasts, a future additional housing requirement of 22,600 households is to be expected in the Northern Black Forest region between 2017 and 2040.

The findings of the analysis represent an important planning and orientation basis for the medium and long-term management of residential development in connection with the planning of the region’s transport and residential infrastructure. The concrete recommendations for action are particularly useful. As a result, the region will be able to avoid undesirable developments through demand-oriented settlement development, ensuring an optimal housing supply and at the same time conserving the limited land resource in the best possible way.

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