all projects

Transport development

Swiss Transport Outlook 2050

Client

Federal Departments of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communication (DETEC)

Year

2021


How will passenger and freight transport in Switzerland develop up to the year 2050? We supported the Swiss Offices for Spatial Development (ARE), Transport (BAV), Roads (ASTRA), Energy (SFOE) and the Environment (FOEN) on behalf of the Federal Department for the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communication (DETEC), in answering this question. Transport Outlook 2050 serves as a new basis for federal transport and spatial planning.

Transport in Switzerland is increasing

Social and economic trends such as increases in home office, expanding urbanisation, and an aging  population, are all driving transport growth. In the main “Basis” scenario, however, growth in transport levels by 2050 (+11 percent) is significantly less than the increase in population (+21 percent).

Freight transport grows by 31 percent in the “Basis” scenario (see below), which although significant, represents less growth than economic development, which records an increase in gross domestic product of 57 percent. This is also dictated by social and economic trends.

Smaller transport capacities, increased bundling of goods

Decarbonisation and increasing electromobility mean that in future the import of fuel and heating oil will decrease, and an increased number of smaller cargoes will be transported rather than bulk cargoes. Strong demand in online commerce is driving up delivery van traffic. The increased bundling of goods at distribution points facilitates rail transport, such as that of individual and grouped goods. Overall, the amount of goods being transported by rail is increasing; their share increases from 37 to 39 percent.

The four scenarios

  • “Basis” scenario: Principles of action of “Mobility and Space 2050,” the programme part of the transport plan. Reflects a shift towards the resource-efficient mobility of people and goods.
  • “Business-as Usual” scenario: Continuation of the current situation, based on a regulatory framework that changes very little.
  • “Individualised Society” and “Sustainable Society” scenarios: Transport is strongly influenced by technical innovations, such as the automation of passenger vehicles. However, technologies are used for different purposes, either for individual comfort (“individualised society”) or for sustainability and resource conservation (“sustainable society”).

All scenarios are based on different assumptions, such as how quickly environmentally friendly technologies are established.

Links and downloads

Traffic Outlook 2050 (PDF in German, website of the Federal Office for Spatial Development)

Further information in German (website of the Federal Office for Spatial Development)

Press release in German (website of the Federal Office for Spatial Development)

Project team: Alex Auf der Maur, Hans-Paul Kienzler, Andreas Brutsche

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Alex Auf der Maur

Senior Project Manager

View profile

Andreas Brutsche

Analyst

View profile

Our work on this topic

Take a look at our latest projects and activities.

Alternative transport scenario for Germany

2024
| Project

Environmental organisations have tasked Prognos with adapting selected assumptions from the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure transport forecasts to facilitate climate-friendly transport development.

Climate-impacting transformation in the transport sector

ongoing
| Project

The latest geopolitical and economic developments present a challenge for the ecological transi-tion of transport. Prognos develops measures for the BMDV.

Reforming environmentally harmful subsidies

2023
| Project

On behalf of the Bertelsmann Stiftung, we examined the effects of phasing out climate damaging subsidies in the transport and industry sectors.

Innovations for the mobility and space transition in NRW

2023
| Project update

Mobility and spatial planning are key issues for the green economy. For this purpose, in cooperation with Prognos, the Kompetenznetzwerk Umweltwirtschaft.NRW compiled an innovation radar.

Sustainable end-of-life vehicle recycling

2023
| Project

Circular economy in practice: As part of the MaterialLoop project, we have been working with Audi and TSR on how more materials from end-of-life vehicles can be used in the production of new vehicles.

Evaluation and further development of the national Emissions Trading System (nETS)

2022
| Project

On behalf of the Federal Environment Agency, we are developing suitable approaches for the impact assessment of the nETS together with the FÖS and the DIW.

Impact of e-commerce on CO2 emissions and air pollution

2022
| Project

We examined retail transport chains for the EU Commission. For the environment, long-distance transport to the EU and the “last mile” play a crucial role.

Eleven measures to achieve 2030 climate target

2022
| Project

Germany risks not hitting its 2030 climate objectives. The Forum Ökologisch-Soziale Marktwirtschaft proposes eleven measures. We assessed their impact on climate protection in the transport and building sectors.

Munich’s Logistics Concept

ongoing
| Project

How can logistics transport in Munich be structured more considerately and sustainably? Together with KE Consult and SSP Consult we develop a logistics concept.

ADAC Mobility Index

ongoing
| Project

Transport demand is continuing to rise and there are various causes for this. But how can the consequences be managed and mobility be made sustainable? A science- and data-based as-sessment method.

International potential analysis of hydrogen technology for mobility solutions

2021
| Project

Hydrogen is considered a future source of energy in the transport sector. Prognos determined the framework conditions for hydrogen technologies in important international markets.

ADAC Mobility Index: Survey of Sustainable Mobility in Germany

2022
| Project update

For the first time, we have created a scientifically based data basis for the sustainable development of mobility in Germany for the ADAC - the result is the ADAC Mobility Index.

Target paths to meet the climate goals in transport

2021
| Project

Which policy measures are required to achieve the 2030 climate targets for transport? Prognos answers these questions for environmental association, Transport & Environment, in “Target paths for transport.”

Prospects of the railway line Amsterdam – Noord Netherlands – Hamburg

2021
| Project

How would the expansion of the rail link between Amsterdam, Noord Netherlands and Hamburg affect socio-economic development? On behalf of the North Netherlands Region, we assessed the potentials.

City life of the future

ongoing
| Project

Prognos is part of the consortium of the BMI programme Model Projects Smart Cities (MPSC).

Prognos Charging Report 2020

2020
| Project

The Prognos Charging Report 2020 conducted on behalf of EnBW (Energie Baden-Württemberg) provides an overview of the status quo of charging infrastructure.

Rail Link between Colmar und Freiburg

2019
| Project

A renewed rail link between Freiburg and Colmar via Breisach could transport between 3500 and 5900 passengers per day. This is the result of a feasibility study carried out by Prognos and Setec.

Globalization of the german automotive industry

2019
| Project

A policy brief for the Bertelsmann Stiftung uses the example of the German automotive industry to show the extent to which other countries directly and indirectly contribute value added to the production of this industry.

Analysis of climate paths in the transport sector 2030

2019
| Project

On behalf of BDI and BCG, Prognos has analysed how Germany can achieve its climate protection targets for 2030 in the transport sector. The result: decisive changes are needed.

Automated driving spreads only slowly

2018
| Project

Automated driving will not be a mass phenomenon in the foreseeable future. This is the result of a study by Prognos AG on behalf of ADAC e.V.

About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

Learn more