Molecules of the energy transition. Large consumers such as the steel industry and air traffic must be supplied with fuels today and in the future. While climate-damaging natural gas and mineral oil products currently dominate, hydrogen, ammonia, synthetic, climate-friendly energy sources, or biomass are soon to play a more significant role. Climate-neutral molecules Climate-neutral fuels still need to step up in terms of the cost-benefit competition. In some cases, however, there are no alternatives or the ones that exist are more costly or have other disadvantages. In this case, climate-neutral hydrogen, ammonia, or synthetic energy sources are the means of choice. The best option for action varies depending on the application. Closed-carbon cycle Alternative fuels are added to the development of CO2 cycles without which climate neutrality cannot be achieved. A portion of the emissions produced by industry and waste incineration are considered difficult to avoid. For climate neutrality to be achieved, the carbon cycle must be closed with the help of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) or Carbon Capture and Use (CCU) and the associated technologies. Similar questions arise for both the production of climate-neutral fuels and for CCU/S: How high is demand? Where are the potential sources? In which industries is CCS used, where is CCU used? And which power and resource demands are triggered by electrolysis or separation? What are the costs today and what will they be tomorrow? How can emissions be suitably balanced? What infrastructure is required? What will the funding requirements be for the plants to be built nationally? Political and economic decisions must stand up to a critical public. International coordination will also be required. Well-founded analyses, based on tried and tested models, allow high levels of acceptance and future-proof planning. The Prognos team is characterised by technological expertise and extensive experience with complex planning processes. Our systemic mindset ensures that all analyses are consistent with the chosen framework. Fuels & Carbon Management: A selection of our servicesAnalyses, studies, and assessmentsWe support decision-makers in politics and business with tailor-made quantitative and qualitative analyses. Our studies are highly credible planning and communication tools.Model developmentOur proven Prognos models are being developed continuously and can be flexibly adapted to the question at hand. For example, we are developing a CO2 model for the complete balancing of sources and sinks of CO2 on a regional scale.Model-based analysisWith our models, we determine the quantity structure of the scenarios. The results form the basis for network and infrastructure planning or other investment decisions. We show the consequences of entrepreneurial and political decisions for different actors (sectors, companies, consumers) and the economy as a whole – consistently and comprehensively.Long-term projectionsBy means of long-term projections, we illustrate the demographic, technological dynamics of the future, already foreseeable today. Our work on this topic Take a look at our latest projects and activities. Further development of national emissions trading 2024 | Project In our report, we estimated the steering effect of the Fuel Emissions Trading Act for the German Environment Agency on the basis of four sensitivities. Read more Financing options for Austria’s hydrogen network 2024 | Project Austria wants a hydrogen network in place by 2030. We investigated how the development of this network can be financed on behalf of the Austrian Climate Protection Ministry. Read more Scenario analysis for the long-term strategy negative emissions ongoing | Project Prognos is preparing a scenario analysis for dena and the BMWK to calculate the demand for and potential of negative emissions in Germany. Read more Free State of Thuringia’s transition to greenhouse gas neutrality 2024 | Project Using a target scenario, we investigated how Thuringia can achieve its climate goals on behalf of the Thuringian Energy Ministry. Read more 4th Trilateral Working Group Meeting on the Southern Hydrogen Corridor 18. July 2024 | Event Jens Hobohm takes part in an event organised by the working group on the Southern Hydrogen Corridor at the invitation of the Italian Ministry of the Environment. Read more Greenhouse gas projections 2024 expert appraisal 2024 | Project For the Council of Experts on Climate Change we conducted an expert appraisal to review the Federal Environment Agency’s greenhouse gas projection data. Read more Natural gas as a bridge to climate neutrality in Germany 2023 | Project How has the role of gas changed as a result of the gas crisis? Our energy team explored this question on behalf of the KfW. Read more Reforming environmentally harmful subsidies 2023 | Project On behalf of the Bertelsmann Stiftung, we examined the effects of phasing out climate damaging subsidies in the transport and industry sectors. Read more Climate policy classification for LNG 2023 | Project How much LNG can it be? Prognos prepared two studies for the German government's Science Platform for Climate Protection (WPKS) to address this question. Read more Decarbonisation of raw materials industries in Germany 2022 | Project A study for the Bertelsmann Stiftung shows which climate policy measures can best support the switch to low-emission production processes. Read more Gas balance: Saving efforts must be intensified 2023 | Project update If savings continue to be as low as in January and February, the risk of a gas shortage will in-crease in the coming winter. Read more Gas consumption in Germany’s production sectors 2023 | Project One potential building block: the Federal Network Agency commissioned Prognos to conduct a study that can support the necessary assessment in the case of gas shortages. Read more Gas balance: Too little is being saved 2023 | Project update Although German gas storage tanks remain at good levels, our vbw monitoring revealed that sav-ings due to behavioural changes were no longer detectable. Read more Mild weather in winter takes off the pressure 2023 | Project update So far, Germany has made it through the winter with relatively little gas. But savings will still be necessary if a gas shortage is to be prevented. Read more Evaluation and further development of the national Emissions Trading System (nETS) 2022 | Project On behalf of the Federal Environment Agency, we are developing suitable approaches for the impact assessment of the nETS together with the FÖS and the DIW. Read more Impact of e-commerce on CO2 emissions and air pollution 2022 | Project We examined retail transport chains for the EU Commission. For the environment, long-distance transport to the EU and the “last mile” play a crucial role. Read more The gas gap is getting smaller, but we’re not in the clear 2022 | Project update Reducing gas demand is the decisive lever for averting a gas shortage situation in the coming winter of 2023/24. Read more Disruption to gas supply – consequences for the brick industry 2022 | Project A study of the production, value-added, and price effects on and through the brick and tile industry in Germany for the Federal Association of the German Brick and Tile Industry. Read more Gas shortfall less than expected, prices remain high 2022 | Project update The gas reservoirs are full, and gas shortages are likely to be significantly less of a problem than feared. However, high gas prices have become almost too expensive for some companies to pay. Read more Halt to Russian gas supply – consequences for German industry 2022 | Project A new scenario commissioned by the vbw (Bavarian Industry Association) shows what German industry could face if Russia stopped supplying gas. Read more Comparison of GHG emissions from the use of primary and recycled raw materials for the production of metals 2022 | Project What are the strategic advantages of using recycled raw materials over primary raw materials for the three metals steel, aluminium and copper in terms of climate management? We have demonstrated this for a recycling company by means of product-specific GHG balancing. Read more Climate-neutral electricity sector 2035 2022 | Project This analysis for Agora Energiewende shows how the transformation of the German electricity sector can succeed by 2035. Read more International potential analysis of hydrogen technology for mobility solutions 2021 | Project Hydrogen is considered a future source of energy in the transport sector. Prognos determined the framework conditions for hydrogen technologies in important international markets. Read more Security of the gas supply in Germany and Europe 2022 | Project Could gas supplied by Russia be replaced? An impulse paper by Agora Energiewende, Prognos and the Wuppertal Institute. Read more Evaluation of combined heat and power (CHP) in Germany ongoing | Project In the context of the energy transition, the role of combined heat and power is also changing. Prognos evaluates the development and develops recommendations for funding and legal bases. Read more Technical CO2 sinks 2021 | Project To achieve climate neutrality, CO2 must be removed from the atmosphere. Prognos prepared an expert report on technical CO2 sinks for dena. Read more Hydrogen: Energy carrier of the future? 2021 | Project The journey towards climate neutrality is gaining momentum. Hydrogen is a key building block to achieving it. Read more Energy Perspectives Switzerland 2050+ 2021 | Project What might a climate-neutral energy system in Switzerland look like in 2050? Prognos modelled the Energy Perspectives 2050+ on behalf of the Swiss Federal Office of Energy. Read more Innovation & Technology Centre for hydrogen 2021 | Project The BMDV (Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport) wants to promote an innovation and technology centre for hydrogen. Prognos and their partner evaluate the concepts of four German regions and conduct feasibility studies. Read more Do you have questions? Your contact at Prognos Jens Hobohm Partner, Director View profile Sebastian Lübbers Project Manager View profile Hans Dambeck Project Manager View profile About us Prognos – Providing Orientation. Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound. Learn more