Expertise

Energy System & Climate Protection

Climate protection – consistent system conversion.

Human influence has led to an unprecedented change in the global climate. To curb global warming, greenhouse gas emissions must be avoided which requires a transformation of the energy system.

The demands placed on the new energy system are enormous: providing emission-free energy sources, their transport and distribution, efficient use and far-reaching changes in the fields of industry, transport, and buildings. Removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere is also a part of this.

At the same time, the transformation should incur as little cost as possible for economies, continue to enable interconnected industrial value creation, be socially balanced, and give developing and emerging countries room to prosper.

Making development paths visible with energy scenarios

Model-based scenarios make it clear which transformation paths for the energy system can succeed. The comparison between several energy scenarios shows the effect of technologies and policy instruments on energy consumption, emissions, and prices. It is also possible to determine the burden and relief of various groups of actors.

Increasing importance of electricity and hydrogen

Electricity will play an increasingly important role in the energy supply of the future: in place of fossil fuels, electricity becomes the central energy source for heat generation, mobility, and hydrogen generation. Green hydrogen and its derivatives are gaining in importance, particularly in the industrial sector (e. g. steel, chemicals), in aviation, and the controllable generation of electricity.

Political and economic decisions must withstand critical public scrutiny – both nationally and locally. Well-founded analyses, supported by proven models, allow high acceptance and future-proof planning. The Prognos team is characterized by technological competence and many years of experience with complex planning processes. Our systemic way of thinking ensures that all analyses are consistent with the chosen framework. 

Energy System & Climate Protection: A selection of our services

Energy and climate protection scenarios

We analyse how the long-term restructuring of energy and economic systems can succeed and what preconditions must be created for this – through policy, for example. For this purpose, we use our tried-and-tested bottom-up models.

Impact assessment of measures

We calculate the impact of individual energy policy measures or comprehensive packages of measures consistently with our model system and determine their contribution to achieving energy and climate goals.

Analyses of (regional) energy supply

The modelling of energy supply and demand provides the basis for planning energy supply and infrastructure as well as assessing security of supply – nationally and regionally. At the state and district level, we take regional structures into account and work with you to develop detailed planning guidelines for the local energy transition.

Economic impact assessments

The implementation of climate protection measures requires additional investment. The investment impulses calculated with the energy models are linked to macroeconomic models in order to determine the overall economic costs, effects on economic sectors, and the need for skilled workers.

Our work on this topic

Take a look at our latest projects and activities.

12th Energy Transition Monitoring

2024
| Project

The energy transition is still lagging behind its goals – such are the findings of our 12th Monitoring Report. In two of the four areas, the lights remain on red.

Annual Energy Transition Monitoring

ongoing
| Project

What is the status of the energy transition in Germany? Since 2012, Prognos has been monitoring the energy transition in Bavaria and Germany on behalf of the vbw.

Energate Forum: Industry meets Energy

| Event

At the energate Forum, energy market expert Sven Kreidelmeyer will give a keynote speech on the topic: Quo vadis energy prices.

Alternative transport scenario for Germany

2024
| Project

Environmental organisations have tasked Prognos with adapting selected assumptions from the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure transport forecasts to facilitate climate-friendly transport development.

Ex-post analysis of energy consumption in Switzerland 2022

2023
| Project update

Final energy consumption in Switzerland for the year 2022 was around 4 percent less than in the year 2021. Mobility (32 percent) accounted for the largest share.

Socioeconomic scenarios for Switzerland

ongoing
| Project

What will Switzerland look like in the future? A welfare state in a fair world or an energy guzzler in fortress Europe? We examine the potential impacts of different scenarios on greenhouse gas emissions.

Analyses of Swiss energy use

ongoing
| Project

On behalf of the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE), we conduct an annual analysis of the development of energy consumption in Switzerland.

Energy prices for industry, an international comparison

2023
| Project

Our study for the vbw compares electricity and gas prices for industry worldwide and provides a price development outlook up to the year 2030.

Climate policy classification for LNG

2023
| Project

How much LNG can it be? Prognos prepared two studies for the German government's Science Platform for Climate Protection (WPKS) to address this question.

Decarbonisation of raw materials industries in Germany

2022
| Project

A study for the Bertelsmann Stiftung shows which climate policy measures can best support the switch to low-emission production processes.

Gas consumption in Germany’s production sectors

2023
| Project

One potential building block: the Federal Network Agency commissioned Prognos to conduct a study that can support the necessary assessment in the case of gas shortages.

Background paper for a buildings strategy for climate neutrality

2023
| Project

How can existing buildings become climate-neutral by 2045? On behalf of the BMWK, we developed scenarios and measures.

Accelerated climate protection does pay off

2023
| Project

If the expansion of renewable energy and the implementation of efficiency measures are ac-celerated, electricity prices will fall more quickly, and the GDP will grow faster. These were the findings of our short study for the INSM.

Overall impact of climate change, mitigation and adaptation on the German economy

ongoing
| Project

For the first time, an expert report for the Federal Ministry of Economics will jointly assess the economic impact of climate change, mitigation and adaptation.

DG REGIO – Evaluation of the European Green Deal

ongoing
| Project

How effective has the EU cohesion policy been in driving green change in Europe? This and other questions are being investigated jointly with COWI, Milieu, and CSIL, on behalf of the European Commission (DG REGIO).

11th Energy Transition Monitoring

2023
| Project

Our data shows: As the expansion of renewable energies has been particularly paralysed, a lot still needs to happen in the coming years if Germany is to achieve its energy and climate goals.

Evaluation and further development of the national Emissions Trading System (nETS)

2022
| Project

On behalf of the Federal Environment Agency, we are developing suitable approaches for the impact assessment of the nETS together with the FÖS and the DIW.

Eleven measures to achieve 2030 climate target

2022
| Project

Germany risks not hitting its 2030 climate objectives. The Forum Ökologisch-Soziale Marktwirtschaft proposes eleven measures. We assessed their impact on climate protection in the transport and building sectors.

Green finance's contribution to achieving climate neutrality in Germany

2022
| Project

What is the public share of climate protection investment? An investigation for the KfW.

Comparison of the "Big 5" climate neutrality scenarios

2022
| Project

Transparency in the climate neutrality debate. A comparison of the "Big 5" climate neutrality scenarios.

Transformation paths for the German steel industry

2022
| Project

Producing primary steel in a greenhouse gas-neutral manner – this is the task facing the steel industry. We have created two scenarios for the German Steel Federation.

Energy strategy Brandenburg 2040

2021
| Project

Prognos evaluated the State of Brandenburg’s Energy Strategy 2030. On this basis, a lead scenario was drawn up for the energy supply of Brandenburg up to the year 2040.

Energy Efficiency Roadmap 2045

ongoing
| Project

Climate neutrality can only be achieved through higher energy efficiency. The German govern-ment's “Energy Efficiency Roadmap 2050” dialogue forum prepares concrete measures.

Climate neutrality & security of supply in the electricity market

2021
| Project

Assessment of the security of supply until 2030 of the scenarios KN2050 and KN2045 from the study "Climate Neutral Germany".

Climate-Neutral Germany 2045

2021
| Project

Together with the Öko-Institut and the Wuppertal Institute, we have investigated how Germany can achieve its climate targets even before 2050.

Energy Perspectives Switzerland 2050+

2021
| Project

What might a climate-neutral energy system in Switzerland look like in 2050? Prognos modelled the Energy Perspectives 2050+ on behalf of the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

8th Monitoring of the Energy Transition

2020
| Project

For the eighth time in a row, Prognos reports on the course of the energy transition in Germany and Bavaria until now, on behalf of the vbw - Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e. V.

Energy projections 2030/2050

2020
| Project

On behalf of the Federal Ministry of Economics, Prognos has determined whether the Federal Government’s climate protection package will be enough for Germany to achieve its climate targets by 2030.

Stakeholder participation in the German Climate Action Plan 2050

2018
| Project

Prognos examined which elements of stakeholder participation had a supportive or inhibitory effect on the process or how the interaction between the Federal Government and participants impacted the process.

Climate Path for Germany

2018
| Project

How can Germany reach its 2050 climate goals - and under what conditions is that possible? Those are the questions addressed by a study for the Association of German Industry (BDI).

Future of th electricity system II

2018
| Project

How can the transition to a power supply based on renewable energies by 2050 be successfully managed? This question is answered by a study for WWF Germany.

Climate Protection and Gas Infrastructure

2018
| Project

Increased expansion of renewable energies and greater energy efficiency could significantly reduce European gas consumption and save costs. This is the result of a study by Prognos and Ecologic.

Market analysis for energy services

2017
| Project

How is the economic environment of energy service providers developing? On behalf of the Federal Agency for Energy Efficiency, Prognos and two research partners investigated this question.

Ex-post analysis of Swiss energy consumption 2015

2016
| Project

Swiss energy consumption in the last 15 years has been slightly reduced. Technological progress and policy intervention played a central role, as shown by the analysis conducted by Prognos, TEP and Infras.

Energy scenarios for the Federal Government Energy Concept

2010
| Project

The energy concept formulates scenario-based guidelines for a clean, reliable, and affordable energy supply.

Do you have questions?

Your contact at Prognos

Dr Andreas Kemmler

Senior Project Manager

View profile

About us

Prognos – Providing Orientation.

Prognos is one of the oldest economic research centres in Europe. Founded at the University of Basel, Prognos experts have been conducting research for a wide range of clients from the public and private sectors since 1959 – politically independent, scientifically sound.

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